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Product Details
| ISBN-13: | 9789813226807 |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | World Scientific Publishing Company, Incorporated |
| Publication date: | 11/21/2017 |
| Series: | ASIA COMPETITIVENESS INST-WORLD SCIENTIFIC SERIES |
| Sold by: | Barnes & Noble |
| Format: | eBook |
| Pages: | 328 |
| File size: | 38 MB |
| Note: | This product may take a few minutes to download. |
Table of Contents
About ACI iii
Foreword Professor Wang Gungwu xv
Preface Professor Kishore Mahbubani xix
Acknowledgements xxi
About the Authors xxiii
List of Economies xxv
List of Abbreviations xxvii
List of Tables and Figures xxix
Chapter 1 China's Economic New Normal, Coping with Deeper Economic Restructuring and the One-Belt One-Road Strategy 1
1.1 The Bumpy Road to China's Emergence as the World's Largest Economy 1
1.2 Rebalancing, Restructuring and Recalibrating the Chinese Economy 3
1.3 Addressing Fundamental Excess Capacity for the Industrial Sector 5
1.4 How China Is Rapidly Narrowing Its Technological Gaps* 6
1.4.1 Recent Impressive Progress in Science and Technology 6
1.4.2 The Ups and Downs of China's S&T Development 8
1.4.3 Good Promises and Big Challenges 9
References 10
Chapter 2 Organisation, Structure and Methodology 11
2.1 Motivation, Target Audience and Roadmap of the Book 11
2.2 Methodology and Data Sources 12
2.2.1 Literature Review on Competitiveness 12
2.2.2 Four Environments and 11 Sub-Environments 13
2.2.3 Indicators 15
2.2.4 Data Sources and Aggregation of Economies Data for Indicators for Regions 15
2.2.5 Standardised Score 17
2.2.6 What-if Competitiveness Simulation Analysis 17
References 18
Chapter 3 2016 Annual Update on Competitiveness Rankings and Simulation Studies for 34 Greater China Economies 21
3.1 Challenges under the "New Normal" and Further Development: An Overview of Greater China 21
3.1.1 China's Most Recent Growth Slowdown 21
3.1.2 Excess Capacity in the Markets: Property Market as a Paradigm 24
3.1.3 Supply-Side Structural Reform: A New Path for Sustainable Economic Development 25
3.2 Research Findings 26
3.2.1 ACI 2016 Overall Competitiveness Rankings and Scores 26
3.2.2 ACI 2016 Macroeconomic Stability Rankings and Scores 39
3.2.3 ACI 2016 Government and Institutional Setting Rankings and Scores 51
3.2.4 ACI 2016 Financial, Businesses and Manpower Conditions Rankings and Scores 63
3.2.5 ACI 2016 Quality of Life and Infrastructure Development Rankings and Scores 66
3.2.6 ACI 2016 What-if Competitiveness Simulation Analysis for Overall Competitiveness 87
3.2.7 ACI 2016 What-if Competitiveness Simulation Analysis for Four Environments 89
3.3 Concluding Remarks and Policy Implications 95
References 98
Chapter 4 2016 Annual Update on Regional Competitiveness Rankings and Simulation Studies for Greater China 99
4.1 Overview of Economic Performances of the Chinese Provinces 99
4.2 Balancing Regional Development and Further Structural Reforms 107
4.2.1 Regional Disparities: Different Causes of Unbalanced Development across Regions 109
4.2.2 Floating Population: Associated Challenges and Opportunities 111
4.2.3 Domestic Market Disintegration: The Need to Strengthen Regional Cooperation 111
4.2.4 Rebalancing Regional Growth: Reinforcing the Connectivity and Cooperation among Regions 112
4.3 Research Findings 113
4.3.1 ACI 2016 Overall Competitiveness Rankings and Scores 113
4.3.2 ACI 2016 Macroeconomic Stability Rankings and Scores 117
4.3.3 ACI 2016 Government and Institutional Setting Rankings and Scores 127
4.3.4 ACI 2016 Financial, Businesses and Manpower Conditions Rankings and Scores 133
4.3.5 ACI 2016 Quality of Life and Infrastructure Development Rankings and Scores 142
4.4 Concluding Remarks 150
References 151
Chapter 5 Growth Slowdown Analysis by Income Thresholds for Greater China Economies 153
5.1 Introduction 153
5.1.1 Background 153
5.1.2 Understanding Growth Slowdowns and "Income Traps" 156
5.1.3 Motivation and Expected Contributions 158
5.2 Stylised Facts on the Economic Growth Landscape of Greater China 159
5.3 Literature Review 169
5.3.1 Income Thresholds Classification 169
5.3.2 Growth Slowdown Identification 170
5.3.3 Drivers of Growth and Determinants of Growth Slowdown 171
5.4 Methodological Approach 171
5.4.1 Obtaining Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per Capita in 1990 Purchasing Power Parity Dollar (PPP$) 178
5.4.2 Classification of Income Thresholds 178
5.4.3 Identification of Growth Slowdowns 179
5.4.4 Regression Analysis on Determinants of Growth Slowdown 181
5.4.5 Bayesian Model Averaging as Robustness Check 182
5.4.6 Obtaining Predictive Probability of an Economy Falling into a Slowdown 184
5.5 Data Description, Statistical Computation and Sources 185
5.6 Empirical Findings 189
5.6.1 Determinants of Growth Slowdown by Income Thresholds 189
5.6.2 Bayesian Model Averaging Results 192
5.6.3 Predictive Probability of Growth Slowdown for Greater China Economies 193
5.7 Relative Strengths and Weaknesses for Greater China Economies 199
5.8 Policy Implications and Concluding Notes 235
References 236
Discussant Notes 1: Comments on "Growth Slowdown Analysis by Income Thresholds for ASEAN Countries and Indonesia Sub-National Economies", Dr Darwin Marcelo, Infrastructure Economist, The World Bank 240
Discussant Notes 2: Comments on "Growth Slowdown Analysis by Income Thresholds for Greater China Economies and India Sub-National Economies", Dr Sun Jingying, Assistant Professor, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China 242
Discussant Notes 3: Comments on "Growth Slowdown Analysis by Income Thresholds for Greater China Economies and India Sub-National Economies", Professor Pulapre Balakrishnan, Ashoka University, Haryana, India 245
Chapter 6 Diversifying and Seeking New Sources of Growth for China: Striving to Be a Global Economic Leader 249
6.1 Challenges under the Current Growth Structure 249
6.2 Further Integration into Global Economy with Exploration of New Sources of Growth 254
6.3 Critical Linkages between One-Belt One-Road and Economic New Normal 257
6.3.1 Outline of B&R Initiative 258
6.3.2 The Association between Economic New Normal and B&R 259
6.3.2.1 Addressing Excess Capacity through Infrastructure Development 259
6.3.2.2 Accelerating the Formation of New Global Trade Centre 259
6.3.2.3 Promoting Regional Investment and Easing Financial Constraints 261
6.3.2.4 Revitalising State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) Reforms 261
6.3.2.5 Enhancing Economic Landscape and Revitalising Economic Integration 262
6.3.2.6 Fostering People-to - People Bonds 262
6.4 How to Maintain Steady High Growth under the Economic New Normal? 263
6.5 China and Singapore: Looking Back to Understand the Future* 265
6.5.1 What is China? 265
6.5.2 What is being Chinese in Singapore? 266
6.5.3 Nation-State in Transition 267
6.6 Future Research Agenda: Nexus between Exchange Rates and FDI Inflows 268
References 270
*Based on an opinion article written by Professor Wang Gungwu of National University of Singapore, Chairman of the East Asian Institute and the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Chairman of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies and Emeritus Professor of Australian National University, on The Straits Times, October 22, 2016.
Appendix 1 Provincial Level Economies Competitiveness Analysis - List of Indicators 273
Appendix 2 Competitiveness Analysis - The Algorithm 277
Appendix 3 Regional Competitiveness Analysis - List of Indicators and Notes on Data Aggregation Method 281
Appendix 4 Determinants of Growth Slowdown for the Low-Income Group, Lower-Middle-Income Group and Combined Group of Upper-Middle-Income and High-Income Economies (Probit Specification) 287
Appendix 5 Predictive Probabilities of Growth Slowdown for Greater China Economies for the Period 2012-2017 (Based on Probit Specification of the Income-Group Specific Growth Slowdown Models) 289