2019 Minor League Baseball Analyst
144
2019 Minor League Baseball Analyst
144Paperback
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Overview
Product Details
| ISBN-13: | 9781629376141 |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | Triumph Books |
| Publication date: | 03/05/2019 |
| Pages: | 144 |
| Product dimensions: | 8.20(w) x 10.70(h) x 0.40(d) |
About the Author
Read an Excerpt
CHAPTER 1
INSIGHTS
The State of the Prospect Catcher
by Chris Blessing
The quality of the MLB catcher pool is at an all-time low. In fact, it has rarely been good over the last decade.
BaseballHQ.com's own Ray Murphy tackled the subject of "Innovating Around the Catcher Pool", an essay first published at BaseballHQ.com during the summer of 2018 and then revised for the 2019 Baseball Forecaster. He proposed altering the traditional 14-man active hitting roster by taking the second catcher slot and converting it into a second utility slot. His rationale is that only six catchers in 2018 were worth $5 or more; only one catcher eclipsed $10 in value. Murphy is correct; leagues should alter the traditional 14-man active hitting roster. However, some owners are resistant to change, which will cause others to be stuck competing in two-catcher formats. Fear not, help is on the way.
Catcher's Renaissance
At First Pitch Arizona 2018, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs coined the phrase "Catcher's Renaissance" when describing the current prospect catching pool. In that vein, one speaker suggested attendees "load up on catching prospects" due to the current catcher pool deficiencies outlined in Murphy's article. While it's easy to scroll down a prospect list and pick catchers based on rankings, it's better to look for markers of successful fantasy catchers. Unfortunately, the public doesn't have access to the Statcast/Trackman data for minor league players since the individual teams own their data. Still, owners can look for skills in the prospect catcher pool that are similar to the minor league skills of some of today's and yesteryear's most successful fantasy catchers. Doing so will help mitigate risk at an incredibly risky position.
Prospect List Risk
Every year, this publication includes a top 100 overall prospect list, the HQ100 (see page 17), and top prospect by position lists, which can be found starting on page 132. Looking at the HQ100 and other prominent media prospect lists from 2011-2015, the industry did a poor job identifying future fantasy contributors. Of the 11 catchers listed as either Stars, Regulars, or Mid-Level fantasy options in the 2019 Forecaster's Universal Draft Guide, only four of the nine catchers who qualified as a prospect between 2011-2015 appeared on the HQ100. The BaseballHQ Minors Team ranked 17 catchers during that time on the HQ100 and only four projected to be Mid-Level or better fantasy contributors in 2019.
We weren't the only ones who were wrong. Everyone had Travis d'Arnaud (injuries), Wil Myers (moved off position), Jesus Montero, Wilin Rosario, Christian Bethancourt, and others ranked highly. However, we were mostly missing catchers like J.T. Realmuto, Willson Contreras, and Salvador Perez until they were practically knocking on the door and ready to become MLB regulars. In other words, as an industry, we only elevated the Realmutos and Contrerases of the world until it was a near certainty they would produce in the big leagues.
Both Realmuto and Contreras were in my coverage area as prospects. While I projected Realmuto as a second-division starter during the 2013 and 2014 seasons, I never considered him for Top 100 inclusion. Contreras came close to making our 2016 HQ100. I liked him more than others, but he was mostly overshadowed by his Double-A teammate (and fellow catcher at the time) Kyle Schwarber.
Don't get me wrong, lists serve a great purpose for fantasy owners. We evaluators at BaseballHQ, like others, put a lot of thought behind our prospect rankings. It's a team effort where we try to eliminate each other's biases to come up with a comprehensive ranking of potential prospect skill sets. However, you're not buying this book just for the rankings. You purchased this book for the analysis, the skill grades, the sabermetric categories, and the player capsule commentaries in constructing your rosters. So let's dig in.
Parameters
I identified 40 catching prospects with a realistic chance at becoming a starting MLB catcher. I narrowed my analysis down by removing every catcher who has yet to make his full-season Class A debut. I wanted a significant sample size to compare future contributors to their past and present counterparts. The biggest names not included are Giants prospect Joey Bart and Dodgers prospect Diego Cartaya. This cut my list down to 28 catching prospects.
The next step was to comb the MLB catcher pool and research their minor league development, looking for attributes or skills that are the backbone of their MLB success. For instance, Yadier Molina, J.T. Realmuto, and Salvador Perez posted elite contact (ct%) at some point in their MiLB careers. I wanted to find current minor league catchers with elite ct% because my research of current MLB catchers, which mostly consisted of catchers who were prospects between 2011 and 2015, indicated ct% was the biggest marker for sustainable success.
My MLB research also looked for attributes not often seen in the catcher pool, like a catcher with a run tool or a catcher with a high walk rate (bb%). Through this research, I was able to identify 12 catchers I believe have a 50% or better probability to become mid-level fantasy contributors.
There are some big catching prospects omitted from this list, like Royals prospect M.J. Melendez. His Single-A ct% was 66% and his bb% was just better than average at 9%. While his potential dwarfs many other catchers, it's hard to project with 50% or more probability that his minor league skills will translate into a mid-level or better contributor.
Elite Skills
For the purposes of this exercise, three catchers carry elite skills: Dodgers prospect Keibert Ruiz (91% ct%), White Sox prospect Zack Collins (19% bb%), and Diamondbacks prospect Daulton Varsho (19 SB in 83 games last season).
Ruiz's skill is the most favorable for future reliability and is most comparable to Double-A versions of Salvador Perez (90% ct%) and Yadier Molina (88% ct%). It doesn't hurt that Ruiz is a premium defender, too. Given the current catcher pool and his ability on both sides of the ball, Ruiz is a Top 10 overall prospect in baseball. As a fantasy prospect, (SPOILER ALERT!) we have him ranked in the Top 30 in our 2019 HQ100.
Collins' skill set comparable players were harder to find, especially factoring in Collins' dismal 62% ct%. The closest comparable catcher I could find was Mike Napoli (68% ct%, 17% bb% in Double-A). The difference is, Collins' raw plus-plus power hasn't developed like Napoli's did (Napoli had 31 HR to Collins' 15 at the same level). This, plus a lacking defensive skill, omits Collins from the 50%-or-better probability list.
The comp people elicit with Varsho and his elite SB skill is Jason Kendall. Though Kendall stole 20+ bases in three consecutive MLB seasons, he wasn't the base-stealing threat Varsho has been in the minors. Kendall never came close to Varsho's 18-SB pace. Outside of being an SB threat, Varsho isn't very comparable to Kendall, with Kendall having an elite ct% (94%) and a better bb% (11%) at the same age and level. Still, Varsho, while factoring in his SB skill, is included on the 50%-or-better probability list because of his SB ability.
Can He Catch?
With the accuracy of defensive metrics improving, the question of "Can he catch?" becomes more and more important. However, MLB organizations value defensive metrics differently, which makes it more difficult to find common ground. Take the 2018 mid-season trade between Cleveland and San Diego. Cleveland made Francisco Mejia expendable because they place a high value on defensive metrics. Mejia is viewed as a complete butcher behind the plate by some around the game, including the Indians, who tried Mejia at multiple positions. San Diego, who acquired Mejia, pledged to keep him at the position. While San Diego may change their mind, they represent a franchise willing to trade off defense for greater offensive skill at catcher. Keep organizational philosophy in mind when looking to acquire a fantasy catcher.
Conclusions
Through my research, I found that catching prospects with an 80% ct% or higher have a greater chance of contributing in fantasy. In most cases, catchers — outside of Gary Sanchez and Mike Zunino — don't develop their power tool until they get to MLB. A great majority of the catchers have outhit their projected HR totals as big leaguers. While ct% has been a good future indicator of MLB production, some catchers, like Kevin Plawecki (88% ct% in Double-A), haven't quite worked out.
Keiburt Ruiz (91% ct%) and Cardinals prospect Andrew Knizner (86%) were the only catchers who produced a ct% greater than 85% in 2018. Blue Jays prospect Danny Jansen (84% ct% prior to MLB stint) was close and should probably be included in the elite ct% group because his 13% bb% is the third-highest bb% among the catchers researched. The two ahead of Jansen, Zack Collins and Orioles prospect Brett Cumberland, have low ct% without an additional carry tool like present HR power.
Below is a list of catchers who have a 50% or better chance of becoming mid-level or better fantasy contributors, ranked by 2018 ct%. Three catchers with a ct% below 80% were close enough with supporting skills to make the list:
May your keeper/dynasty league teams "receive" at least one of these catchers in 2019.
Top 20 International Prospects for 2019
by Chris Blessing
Every July, Christmas comes to dynasty player pools everywhere with an influx of talented prospects from Latin America. As always, this year's class was made up of some incredibly raw, athletic players, including more Cuban players than we've seen before due to the relaxing of government regulations between Cuba and the United States. Of course, with an ever-changing political environment, this could be a one-year thing or the new normal. Listed below are international prospects who signed contracts during the international signing period in 2018.
Please note that some players eligible for this list have player boxes in this book. For the purposes of space, those players aren't profiled in this section. These prospects include Diego Cartaya (C, LA) and Richard Gallardo (RHP, CHC).
In alphabetical order:
Kevin Alcantara (OF, NYY) is a 6'5? speedster with long legs and a plus-plus run tool. Scouts dream on his long, lanky frame, which packs serious power potential. His right-handed swing is long, though Alcantara has a knack for hard contact and a surprisingly good contact rate despite his swing issues. Signed for $1 million, Alcantara is a natural in CF. His plus-plus speed and natural route-running ability push the glove tool toward plus levels, even though his height may someday force him off the position.
Francisco Alvarez (C, NYM) is a powerful, stocky (5'11?, 220 lbs) catcher with an advanced hit tool and solid power potential. Signed for $2.7 million out of Venezuela, the Mets are betting his work ethic and surprising athletic ability will aid with defensive improvement, despite his size. At the plate, the right-handed hitting Alvarez has solid contact skills and the ability to spray the field with line drives. There's raw plus power in his frame, which is close to projection. Some scouts fear Alvarez will struggle with size issues as he gets older. The body isn't terrible, but it will need careful TLC. Defensively, his skills project out as below average. However, he's not limited laterally and doesn't stab at the ball. There's a chance he'll be more than passable behind the plate.
Starlyn Castillo (RHP, PHI) signed with the Phillies for $1.6 million despite not fitting the mold of the prototypical bonus baby prospect. The Dominican righty is under 6 feet tall and is filled out with good muscle definition. He's also one of the hardest throwers in the class, sitting in the low-to-mid 90s with his fastball. Castillo was up to 98 mph before signing with Philadelphia. He also has a good idea of how to spin the ball, featuring a sharp, two-plane slider. Castillo also has a feel for a change-up. While there are concerns about his height, he uses his delivery, especially his lower half, to generate velocity and lessen the stress he puts on his arm.
Jose De La Cruz (OF, DET) is a CF prospect who signed with the Tigers for 1.8 million. Scouts love his athleticism and power projection, they don't care so much for his swing mechanics. On the bright side, De La Cruz, a right-handed hitter, has plus bat speed and incorporates good leverage in his lower half. He struggles to get his hands firing from the load position and also struggles with pitch recognition. When he makes contact, he finds the barrel more times than not. There is plus power potential in the profile. Scouts are split on whether he sticks in CF, however, his arm and power should play in either corner OF position.
Sandy Gaston (RHP, TAM) is a hard-throwing Cuban RHP who signed with the Rays in the fall for $2.6 million. Gaston played at an advanced level at a very early age in Cuba, however, he struggled with control, posting an even K/BB ratio. Those concerns have not gone away, even as his fastball has ticked up. It sits in the mid-90s but has been clocked as high as 100 mph. Gaston is athletic with good size and room to grow muscle mass. He doesn't repeat his delivery well and puts significant stress on his upper half to generate velocity, despite achieving good extension. He also has a pronounced head whip, which prevents him from staying online with his delivery.
Antonio Gomez (C, NYY) is a budding defensive prospect with an incredible arm behind the plate. Signed by the Yankees for $600k, Gomez wowed scouts at the MLB International Showcase with his strong throwing arm, quick feet, and online throws. He's also an agile receiver with emerging receiving abilities. At the plate, the Venezuelan has been a late bloomer, as the right-handed hitting Gomez began to barrel velocity with a short, compact swing. His swing trajectory and frame could grow into above-average power potential. The glove will push the profile, but don't sleep on his offensive potential.
Juan Guerrero (SS, COL) is a toolsy infield prospect who signed with the Rockies for $650k out of the Dominican Republic. Guerrero's bat finds the barrel, even though his high leg kick and lower-half mechanics are rough looks. The exaggerated leg kick has proven to be a good timing mechanism and the lower-half mechanics create enough power to thump the ball. It will be interesting to see how the Rockies progress with his swing. Will they try to change his mechanics? One thing is for sure, the leg kick will likely be cut down before his pro debut. Defensively, scouts are split on Guerrero's long-term position. His hands rate out highly and he could end up at either 2B, 3B, or SS.
Alvin Guzman (OF, ARI) is an athletic specimen with room to grow into his frame. Signed by the Diamondbacks for $1.85 million, Guzman has a tool shed to dream on. There's above-average potential with all five tools, though his hit and power tools both lag way behind his defensive skill and running instincts. His right-handed swing is very uneven, as he tends to over-extend early, which causes his swing to go around the baseball. The hope is that under the organization's watchful eye, the athleticism will play up and Guzman's will be able to clean up his swing. The Diamondbacks are likely to bring him along slower than other July 2 studs.
Eduardo Lopez (OF, BOS) is the rare high-floor prospect on the international market. Signed by the Red Sox for $1.15 million, the switch-hitting Dominican OF showcased an advanced approach and swing in the run-up to signing day. Lopez has a smooth, compact swing from the LH side, peppering the gaps with line drives due to advanced barrel control. From the RH side, the swing is geared toward fly ball contact, which should aid in his over-the-fence abilities at maturity. Defensively, he lacks the topflight speed of other international CF prospects featured in this article, which will likely cause Lopez to eventually move off the position. Luckily, his power potential and arm play in the corner OF.
Marco Luciano (SS/OF, SF) is the top Dominican prospect in this class, receiving a $2.6 million signing bonus. While his future position is up for debate, no one can deny the 17-year-old's desire to be the best he can be. The Giants love his makeup. A tireless worker, Luciano's body and ability is beyond his years. At the plate, the right-handed hitting Luciano is a line drive machine with big power potential. He has quick wrists and hands with a solid swing path, limiting swing-and-miss issues. A quick-twitch athlete, Luciano is only an average runner. While he possesses solid range at SS, most evaluators think his future is in the OF. The Giants are comfortable trying Luciano at SS until he outgrows the position.
(Continues…)
Excerpted from "2019 Minor League Baseball Analyst"
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Copyright © 2019 USA TODAY Sports Media Group LLC.
Excerpted by permission of Triumph Books LLC.
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Table of Contents
Introduction,
Insights,
The 2019 HQ100,
Batters,
Pitchers,
Major League Equivalents,
Organization Ratings/Rankings,
Mega-Lists,
Glossary,
Team Affiliations,