Arab-Israeli Military Forces in an Era of Asymmetric Wars

by Anthony H. Cordesman

Overview

The reality of the Arab-Israeli balance now consists of two subordinate balances: Israel versus Syria and Israel versus the Palestinians. The book analyzes these two balances in detail and their impact on defense planning in each country and on the overall strategic risk to the region as a whole. It covers military developments in each of six states—Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine—and provides an analytical view with charts and tables of how the changing natures of the military and political threats faced by each is impacting its military force readiness and development. The book has the most comprehensive data on past, current, and future military force structure currently available, drawn from the widest range of sources. Responding to the most recent of events in the region, this book is the first to deal with the effects on the Arab-Israeli military balance of the strategic uncertainty created by the Iraqi insurgency and the Iranian nuclear program. It also studies how the Gaza pullout, the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, the changing political landscape in Israel, and the threat of nuclear proliferation are having impacts on the Egyptian-Israeli and Jordanian-Israeli peace accords and the prospects for a settlement between the Palestinians and Israelis. The roles of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are analyzed in light of the changing political landscape in both Israel and Palestine. Given the role of Syria in the Palestinian-Israeli affairs, the book also explores the ways that internal instability in Lebanon could escalate into a regional conflict.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780804759670
Publisher:	Stanford University Press
Publication date:	03/12/2008
Series:	Stanford Studies in Jewish History and C Ser.
Pages:	432
Product dimensions:	6.12(w) x 9.25(h) x (d)

About the Author

Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and is an analyst and commentator for ABC News. He has written extensively on energy and Middle East politics, economics, demographics, and security. He has served in a number of senior positions in the U.S. government, including the Department of Energy, and several assignments in the Middle East.

Table of Contents

Illustrations     xi
Acknowledgments     xv
Introduction     1
Peace Agreements and Their Impact on Conventional War Fighting     3
A Shift toward Asymmetric Warfare and Wars of Attrition     5
The Problem of Proliferation     8
The Growing Importance of Internal Security Threats     8
Major Trends in Force Strength     11
The Importance of Force Quality vs. Force Quantity     11
Looking at a Snapshot of Total Forces     12
Comparative Manpower Quantity and Quality     18
Comparative Land Force Strength     23
Comparative Land Force Manpower     23
Varying Mixes of Armor and Antitank Weapons     26
Varying Mixes of Artillery and Antiaircraft Weapons     32
Comparative Air Strength: Quality over Quantity     37
Comparative Air Force Strength     37
Comparative Land-Based Air Defense Forces     46
Comparative Naval Strength: Peripheral Missions     47
Total Resources: Recapitalization, force Modernization, and Impact on Effectiveness     50
Comparative Trends in Military Expenditures     51
Comparative Trends in Arms Imports     53
The Military Forces of Israel     63
Asymmetric Wars of Attrition     65
The Threat from Proliferation     66
Shifting From a Conventional to an Asymmetric Edge     67
Israeli Approaches to Asymmetric Warfare     69
Rubber Bullets     70
House Demolitions     71
Urban Warfare     73
Targeted Assassinations     74
Dealing with Roadside Attacks and Retaliation     75
Attacks on Settlements and the IDF Response     76
Ground Raids by the IDF     76
Drives into the Gaza Strip and the West Bank     78
Use of Large-Scale Arrests     79
Attacking and Isolating the Palestinian Leadership     80
Use of Air Power     81
Israeli Use of Helicopters and Aircraft     82
Countering Palestinian Arms Smuggling and Manufacturing     84
Withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank     85
Separation, Security Barriers, and the "Fence"     86
What the Barrier Seems to Mean     89
Barrier, Boundary, or Border?     91
Bad Fences Make Bad Neighbors?     92
Adapting while Retaining Conventional Military Strengths     93
Trends in Manpower and Total Force Strength: Active vs. Reserve Forces      96
The "Kela 2008 Plan"     99
Kushet (Rainbow) Plan     100
Israeli Land Forces     101
Land Force Transformation     105
Command and Control Changes     105
Main Battle Tanks     107
Other Armor     109
Antitank Weapons     110
Up-Armoring Lighter Vehicles and Support Forces     110
Artillery Forces     111
Asymmetric Warfare Capabilities     112
Other Aspects of Land Force Development     113
Israeli Air Forces     114
Modern Air Operations Are Joint Operations     118
Air Defense and Air-to-Air Combat Capability     119
Air Offense and Air-to-Ground Combat Capability     120
IAF Readiness and Training Standards     121
Current Superiority and Future Challenges     122
Israeli Land-Based Air Defenses     122
C[superscript 4]I/BM and Sensor Systems     124
Short-Range Air Defense Systems     124
Readiness and Effectiveness     125
Israeli Naval Forces     125
Surface Fleet Developments     125
Smaller Surface Ships     128
Submarine Forces     129
Amphibious Forces      130
Naval Aviation     130
The Navy's Role in Asymmetric Warfare     130
Naval Readiness and Mission Capability     131
Israel's Counterterrorism and Internal Security Forces     132
Israeli Capabilities     134
Israeli Terrorist Groups     135
Internal Security vs. Human Rights and Political Impacts     136
Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction     140
Iran as a Wild Card     148
Possible Iranian Response     151
Shifts in Israeli Strategic Nuclear Forces     152
Shifts in Israeli Missile Defenses     153
Israel's Continuing Strategic Challenges     153
The Military Forces of Egypt     157
Force Size vs. Force Quality     158
Egyptian Land Forces     160
Force Structure and Major Deployments     162
Main Battle Tanks and Other Armor     162
Other Armored Forces     167
Antitank Weapons     167
Artillery     168
Air Defense Forces     168
Readiness and Modernization     169
Egyptian Air Forces     169
Combat Air Strength     170
Force "Enablers" and Transport Aircraft      170
Ongoing Force Improvements     173
Readiness and Mission Capabilities     174
Egyptian Land-Based Air Defenses     174
Egyptian Force Structure     175
Modernization and Upgrades     175
Short-Range Air Defenses     177
Readiness and Mission Capability     177
Egyptian Naval Forces     178
Submarine Forces     178
Major Surface Forces     182
Missiles and Other Patrol Craft     183
Mine Warfare Capability     183
Amphibious Forces     184
Coastal Defense Forces     184
Naval Aviation     184
Readiness and Mission Capability     184
Egyptian Paramilitary, Security, and Intelligence Forces     185
Key Egyptian Security, Intelligence, and Paramilitary Forces     185
Major Internal Security Threats     188
Internal Security vs. Human Rights and Political Impacts     192
Egyptian Weapons of Mass Destruction     195
Egypt's Continuing Strategic Challenges     199
The Sinai Contingency     200
The New Security Mission in the Gaza Strip     203
Egypt's Other Strategic Challenges     205
The Military Forces of Jordan     208
Trends in Jordanian Force Development     210
Jordanian Manpower     213
Jordanian Army     214
The Jordanian Army Command Structure     214
Jordanian Main Battle Tanks     218
Jordanian Other Armored Vehicles     219
Jordanian Antitank Weapons     219
Jordanian Artillery     219
Jordanian Antiaircraft     220
Jordanian Army Readiness and Effectiveness     220
Jordanian Air Force     221
Fixed-Wing Air Units     221
Rotary-Wing Air Units     223
Jordanian Land-Based Air Defenses     224
Jordanian Naval Forces     224
Jordanian Paramilitary, Security, and Intelligence Forces     225
Major Terrorist and Extremist Threats     227
Jordanian Counterterrorism     228
Security vs. Reform     230
Jordan's Continuing Strategic Challenges     232
Jordanian Support of Palestinian Forces in the West Bank, Jerusalem, and Israel     232
Jordanian "Rescue" of Palestinians in the West Bank     233
Jordanian Cooperation with Syria     234
Jordan's Current Security Challenges     236
The Military Forces of Lebanon     238
The Syrian Factor     239
Lebanese Security after Syrian Withdrawal     240
The Trends in Lebanese Forces     241
The Lebanese Army     242
Major Combat Equipment     243
Training and Readiness     247
The Lebanese Air Force     248
Lebanese Naval Forces     249
Lebanese Paramilitary Forces and Hezbollah     250
Nonstate Forces: Hezbollah     254
Nonstate Forces: Asbat al-Ansar     263
The Role of the Lebanese Security Forces     264
Lebanon's Continuing Strategic Challenges     266
The Military Forces of Palestine     268
The Oslo Accords and the New Israeli-Palestinian War     271
The Death of Arafat and the Victory of Hamas: Redefining Palestinian Politics and the Arab-Israeli Military Balance     272
Hamas Comes to Power     273
The Changing Structure of Palestinian Authority Forces     274
Palestinian Authority Forces during the Peace Process     274
The Impact of the Israeli-Palestinian War     276
The Uncertain Size of Current Palestinian Authority Security Forces     278
Palestinian Security Forces and Internal Security in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank      281
Palestinian Militant Organizations and Their Military Impact     287
The Differing Character of Palestinian Militant Groups     294
Hamas or Harakat Al-Muqawwama Al-Islamia (Islamic Resistance Movement)     295
Islamic Jihad     310
Fatah Tanzim ("Organization")     315
Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades     316
Smaller Militant Groups     320
Palestinian Approaches to Asymmetric Warfare     322
Suicide Bombings     322
Mortars and Rockets     324
Political Warfare and Weapons of Mass Media     326
Palestinian Strategic Challenges     328
The Military Forces of Syria     330
Lebanon and Syria's Proxy War with Israel     331
Syria's Broader Regional Problems     332
The Trends in Syrian Forces     333
The Syrian Modernization and Recapitalization Crisis     334
The Russian Connection?     337
The Israeli Problem     338
Continuing to Go "Hollow"     339
Syrian Land Forces     339
Syrian Force Strengths and Deployments     340
Syrian Main Battle Tanks     341
Syrian Other Armored Vehicles     345
Syrian Antitank Weapons      345
Syrian Artillery     346
Syrian Army Air Defenses     346
Syrian Army Training and Readiness     347
Syrian Air and Air Defense Forces     347
Syrian Combat Air Strength     347
Syrian Rotary-Wing Combat Strength     350
Syrian Land-Based Air Defenses     350
Syrian Air Defense Weapons     350
Shorter-Range Syrian Air Defenses     351
Syrian Air Defense Training and Readiness     351
Syria's Need for Air Defense Modernization     351
Syrian Naval Forces     353
Syrian Surface Forces     353
Syrian Amphibious Capability     355
Syrian Naval Aviation     355
Syrian Coastal Defense Forces     355
Syrian Naval Readiness and Training     356
Syrian Paramilitary, Security, and Intelligence Forces     356
Syrian Weapons of Mass Destruction     362
Syrian Progress in Weapons Development     368
Possible Syrian Strategy, Tactics, and Employment     370
Syria's Continuing Strategic Challenges     370
Real-World Syrian Options on the Golan     371
Israeli Options Against Syria     373
Syrian Risk Taking      377
Syria's Real-World Strategic Priorities     377
An Uncertain Future     381
Notes     385

Editorial Reviews

"This is a valuable reference book for those interested in the Arab-Israeli conflict."—Middle East Studies Association Bulletin

"This book contains an exhaustive array of information and graphics on the quantities and types of weapons for ground, air, air defense, naval, and paramilitary forces as well as weapons of mass destruction capabilities in each of the actors at the core of the Arab-Israeli conflict. These actors are the nation-states of Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, as well as the Palestinians. The comprehensive order-of-battle information is complemented by rich qualitative analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of military and security forces in combat. The book is an important reference work for graduate students, scholars, and practitioners who study Middle East security issues. It is especially recommended for libraries intent on maintaining important reference volumes for the Middle East. Highly recommended. Graduate students, faculty, and practitioners."—Choice

"Anthony Cordesman here does what he does best. In his latest of a long series of books on the Middle East, he evaluates the military forces of Israel and its surrounding Arab neighbors with particular emphasis on unconventional warfare, or what is now called asymmetric warfare, meaning war where one side mingles with the civilian population causing moral confusion to the enemy. His book consists of an overview along with a segment for each of the countries involved. His findings are what most of us have already surmised: that in a conventional army-to-army war, Israel will triumph. He gives us detailed proof as to why, and as we learn more about their armies, we get a better understanding of each of the countries....Mr. Cordesman simply reports the facts with masses of corroborating detail and leaves moral judgments to others. We need not ask for more."—The Washington Times

From the Publisher

"This is a valuable reference book for those interested in the Arab-Israeli conflict."

Middle East Studies Association Bulletin

"Anthony Cordesman here does what he does best. In his latest of a long series of books on the Middle East, he evaluates the military forces of Israel and its surrounding Arab neighbors with particular emphasis on unconventional warfare, or what is now called asymmetric warfare, meaning war where one side mingles with the civilian population causing moral confusion to the enemy. His book consists of an overview along with a segment for each of the countries involved. His findings are what most of us have already surmised: that in a conventional army-to-army war, Israel will triumph. He gives us detailed proof as to why, and as we learn more about their armies, we get a better understanding of each of the countries....Mr. Cordesman simply reports the facts with masses of corroborating detail and leaves moral judgments to others. We need not ask for more."

The Washington Times

"This book contains an exhaustive array of information and graphics on the quantities and types of weapons for ground, air, air defense, naval, and paramilitary forces as well as weapons of mass destruction capabilities in each of the actors at the core of the Arab-Israeli conflict. These actors are the nation-states of Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, as well as the Palestinians. The comprehensive order-of-battle information is complemented by rich qualitative analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of military and security forces in combat. The book is an important reference work for graduate students, scholars, and practitioners who study Middle East security issues. It is especially recommended for libraries intent on maintaining important reference volumes for the Middle East. Highly recommended. Graduate students, faculty, and practitioners."

Choice