Averting Catastrophe: Decision Theory for COVID-19, Climate Change, and Potential Disasters of All Kinds

by Cass R Sunstein

Overview

The New York Times–bestselling author of Nudge and The World According to Star Wars examines how governments handle worst-case scenarios.

The world is increasingly confronted with new challenges related to climate change, globalization, disease, and technology. Governments are faced with having to decide how much risk is worth taking, how much destruction and death can be tolerated, and how much money should be invested in the hopes of avoiding catastrophe. Lacking full information, should decision-makers focus on avoiding the most catastrophic outcomes? When should extreme measures be taken to prevent as much destruction as possible?

Averting Catastrophe explores how governments ought to make decisions in times of imminent disaster. Cass R. Sunstein argues that using the “maximin rule,” which calls for choosing the approach that eliminates the worst of the worst-case scenarios, may be necessary when public officials lack important information, and when the worst-case scenario is too disastrous to contemplate. He underscores this argument by emphasizing the reality of “Knightian uncertainty,” found in circumstances in which it is not possible to assign probabilities to various outcomes. Sunstein brings foundational issues in decision theory in close contact with real problems in regulation, law, and daily life, and considers other potential future risks. At once an approachable introduction to decision-theory and a provocative argument for how governments ought to handle risk, Averting Catastrophe offers a definitive path forward in a world rife with uncertainty.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781479808502
Publisher:	New York University Press
Publication date:	11/21/2023
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	175
File size:	484 KB

About the Author

Cass R. Sunstein is the Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard. He is the founder and director of the Program on Behavioral Economics and Public Policy at Harvard Law School. He is the author of hundreds of articles and dozens of books, including Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness (with Richard H. Thaler), Conformity: The Power of Social Influences, How Change Happens, and Too Much Information: Understanding What You Don’t Want to Know.

Table of Contents

Introduction 1

1 What We Don't Know 7

2 With and Without Numbers 16

3 The Maximin Principle 28

4 The Precautionary Principle 43

5 Uncertainty 61

6 Objections 72

7 Irreversibility 82

Conclusion 107

Acknowledgments 119

Appendix A Memorandum for the Heads of Executive Departments and Agencies 121

Appendix B Circular A-4 127

Notes 137

Index 157

About the Author 167

Editorial Reviews

"This is an important book of extraordinary timeliness. At once modest and transformative, Sunstein’s pragmatic recommendations can help policymakers manage the world’s biggest problems—even in the face of catastrophic uncertainty."

Arden Rowell

"Uncertainty is everywhere, and the list of potential catastrophes seems to grow longer every year. Few are better positioned to shed light into the gloom than Cass Sunstein. Drawing on his deep engagement with a wide range of intellectual disciplines and his years of government experience during the Obama administration, Sunstein demonstrates how clear thinking can help us navigate through difficult times."

Michael A. Livermore

"Sunstein is unique in knowing about both the nature of risk and uncertainty and having crafted policy to protect us from it. This book tells us what we can do to 'sleep better at night' in an uncertain world. This is wisdom that should be acted on."

Michael Greenstone

"A must-read if you want the expert guidance of one of the most brilliant minds in American law about how our nation should address its most serious risks, including pandemics, climate change, and terrorist attacks. Cass Sunstein has written a tour-de-force that makes the most vexing problems in decision theory accessible—and enjoyable to read—to a broad audience."

Richard L. Revesz

"If you want to understand how to analyze and avert potential catastrophes of the modern world, from pandemics to climate change, you should start with this brilliant book. Ranging widely and deeply over law, economics, and philosophy, Sunstein explains through examples and principles how societies can deal with the deep uncertainties we face."

William Nordhaus

"A must-read book for anyone with an interest in public policy or personal decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Which makes it a must-read book, period."

Robert S. Pindyck