Beyond Mechanical Markets: Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State

Beyond Mechanical Markets: Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State

Beyond Mechanical Markets: Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State

Beyond Mechanical Markets: Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State

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Overview

A powerful challenge to contemporary economics and a new agenda for global finance

In the wake of the global financial crisis that began in 2007, faith in the rationality of markets has lost ground to a new faith in their irrationality. The problem, Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue, is that both the rational and behavioral theories of the market rest on the same fatal assumption—that markets act mechanically and economic change is fully predictable. In Beyond Mechanical Markets, Frydman and Goldberg show how the failure to abandon this assumption hinders our understanding of how markets work, why price swings help allocate capital to worthy companies, and what role government can and can't play.

The financial crisis, Frydman and Goldberg argue, was made more likely, if not inevitable, by contemporary economic theory, yet its core tenets remain unchanged today. In response, the authors show how imperfect knowledge economics, an approach they pioneered, provides a better understanding of markets and the financial crisis. Frydman and Goldberg deliver a withering critique of the widely accepted view that the boom in equity prices that ended in 2007 was a bubble fueled by herd psychology. They argue, instead, that price swings are driven by individuals' ever-imperfect interpretations of the significance of economic fundamentals for future prices and risk. Because swings are at the heart of a dynamic economy, reforms should aim only to curb their excesses.

Showing why we are being dangerously led astray by thinking of markets as predictably rational or irrational, Beyond Mechanical Markets presents a powerful challenge to conventional economic wisdom that we can't afford to ignore.


Product Details

ISBN-13: 9781400838189
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Publication date: 02/07/2011
Sold by: Barnes & Noble
Format: eBook
Pages: 288
File size: 2 MB

About the Author

Roman Frydman is professor of economics at New York University. Michael D. Goldberg is the Roland H. O'Neal Professor at the University of New Hampshire. They are the coauthors of Imperfect Knowledge Economics (Princeton).

Table of Contents

  • FrontMatter, pg. i
  • Contents, pg. vii
  • Acknowledgments, pg. xiii
  • What Went Wrong and What We Can Do about It, pg. 1
  • 1. The Invention of Mechanical Markets, pg. 21
  • 2.The Folly of Fully Predetermined History, pg. 41
  • 3. The Orwellian World of “Rational Expectations”, pg. 55
  • 4.The Figment of the “Rational Market”, pg. 71
  • 5. Castles in the Air: The Efficient Market Hypothesis, pg. 81
  • 6.The Fable of Price Swings as Bubbles, pg. 103
  • 7. Keynes and Fundamentals, pg. 117
  • 8. Speculation and the Allocative Performance of Financial Markets, pg. 149
  • 9. Fundamentals and Psychology in Price Swings, pg. 163
  • 10. Bounded Instability: Linking Risk and Asset-Price Swings, pg. 175
  • 11. Contingency and Markets, pg. 195
  • 12. Restoring the Market-State Balance, pg. 217
  • Epilogue, pg. 249
  • References, pg. 257
  • Index, pg. 273

What People are Saying About This

From the Publisher

"This important book addresses fundamental questions about macroeconomic and financial modeling that too often are sidestepped. It challenges assumptions that are routinely made, both by orthodox theory and by popular 'behavioral' alternatives; still more provocatively, it proposes a way forward, under which economic analysis remains possible, though shorn of some of its pretensions. These are issues with which all students of macroeconomics and finance will have to grapple, and Frydman and Goldberg provide a lively and impassioned opening to what will surely prove one of the crucial debates of our time."—Michael Woodford, author of Interest and Prices

"This is a brilliant, subtle, and powerful book, by far the best work of economic theory that the global financial crisis has yet produced. If any account deserves to rescue formal economics from the dead end that it has reached, and restore the connection between what economists tell you and what actually happens, this is it."—Robert Skidelsky, author of Keynes: Return of the Master

"The economy is not just mechanical; much change is nonroutine. In turn, many important economic decisions are also nonroutine. Based on this insight, Frydman and Goldberg give us a new theory of the business cycle. In market after market, they convincingly argue its realism. What's more, Beyond Mechanical Markets gives us a doctor's prescription for dampening—and possibly even avoiding altogether—the next economic crisis."—George A. Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics

"This book is a milestone. It breaks important new ground in the refoundation that macroeconomics and finance so badly need. The authors' rereading of Keynes will come as a revelation both to Keynesians and behavioralists ."—Edmund S. Phelps, Nobel Laureate in Economics

"The year 2008 saw not only financial failure but the failure of an idea, the economic theory in which financial markets are mechanically determined to settle at equilibrium and economically efficient prices. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg demonstrate clearly the fallacy of that idea. Their powerful analysis provides insights which can help us reduce the probability and severity of future crises."—Adair Turner, chairman of Britain's Financial Services Authority

"Beyond Mechanical Markets is a potential turning point in economics. Frydman and Goldberg offer a view that is not only new but almost certainly correct—and that has far-reaching implications. After reading Beyond Mechanical Markets, other economics books seem old-fashioned."—Richard Robb, Columbia University

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