Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting / Edition 2

by James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson

Overview

The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780226774886
Publisher:	University of Chicago Press
Publication date:	11/15/1993
Series:	National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Business Cycles , #28
Edition description:	1
Pages:	348
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x 1.00(d)

About the Author

James H. Stock is the Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy at Harvard University, faculty member of the Harvard Kennedy School, and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
 

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments
Introduction
James H. Stock And Mark W. Watson
1. Twenty-Two Years Of The NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects And Comparisons Of Forecasting Performance
Victor Zarnowitz And Phillip Braun
Comment: Allen Sinai
2. A Procedure For Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues And Recent Experience
James H. Stock And Mark W. Watson
Comment: Kenneth F. Wallis
3. Estimating Event Probabilities From Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation
Ray C. Fair
Comment: James D. Hamilton
4. A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model
Christopher A. Sims
Comment: Pierre Perron
5. Why Does The Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?
Benjamin M. Friedman And Kenneth N. Kuttner
Comment: Ben S. Bernanke
6. Further Evidence On Business Cycle Duration Dependence
Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch, And Daniel E. Sichel
Comment: Bruce E. Hansen
7. Dynamic Index Models For Large Cross Sections
Danny Quah And Thomas J. Sargent
Comment: John Geweke
8. Modelling Non-Linearity Over The Business Cycle
Clive W.J. Granger, Timo Teräsvirta, And Heather Anderson
Comment: Andrew Harvey
Contributors
Author Index
Subject Index

Editorial Reviews

Eight papers from a conference in Cambridge, Massachusetts, May 1991, examine the techniques for forecasting business cycles that have been developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)

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