Challenges in Intelligence Analysis: Lessons from 1300 BCE to the Present

by Timothy Walton

Overview

In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis. After a brief introduction to the main concepts of analysis, he provides more than forty historical and contemporary examples that demonstrate what has, and what has not, been effective when grappling with difficult problems. The examples cover a wide span of time, going back 3,000 years. They are also global in scope and deal with a variety of political, military, economic, and social issues. Walton emphasizes the importance of critical and creative thinking and how such thinking can be enhanced. His book provides a detailed and balanced idea of intelligence work and will be of particular interest to students who are contemplating a career in intelligence analysis. *Offers a brief introduction to the concepts, vocabulary, and tools of intelligence analysis. *Features more than forty examples, each with questions for further discussion and recommended reading. *Includes an instructor’s guide with model answers to the questions for further discussion, as well as suggested exercises and additional background information. http://www.youtube.com/v/Ee3xqGVsL18?version=3

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780521132657
Publisher:	Cambridge University Press
Publication date:	08/30/2010
Edition description:	New Edition
Pages:	310
Product dimensions:	6.10(w) x 9.20(h) x 0.80(d)

About the Author

Timothy Walton is an adjunct professor of intelligence studies at Mercyhurst College and on the roster of subject matter experts at Omnis Inc., an intelligence training consulting firm. The author of The Spanish Treasure Fleets, he served in the U.S. Navy and spent twenty-four years as an analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency.

Table of Contents

Figures ix

Preface xi

Part I Problems and Possible Solutions 1

1 The Main Challenges in Intelligence Analysis 3

2 Attempts to Deal with the Challenges 9

Part II From the Ancient World to Modern Times 29

3 Moses Sends Spies into Canaan 31

4 The Athenian Campaign on Sicily 35

5 Caesar's Campaigns in Gaul 39

6 Sun Tzu 45

7 The Spanish Armada 49

8 George Washington 55

Part III The First Half of the Twentieth Century 61

9 Wilson and the Paris Peace Conference 63

10 Estimating the Strength of the Luftwaffe in the 1930s 69

11 Stalin Assesses Hitler 79

12 Pearl Harbor 89

13 Targets for the Allied Bombers 99

14 The German V-Weapon 105

Part IV The Cold War 113

15 Atomic Bomb Spies 115

16 Outbreak of the Korean War 123

17 Counterinsurgency in Malaya 131

18 Soviet Strategic Weapons 137

19 Cuban Missile Crisis 143

20 Aspects of the Vietnam War 149

21 The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan 155

22 Finding Spies: Ames and Hanssen 161

23 Breakup of the USSR 167

Part V Other International Security Issues, Other Places 173

24 The Yom Kippur War 175

25 The Fall of the Shah 183

26 Nuclear Weapons Tests 189

27 A. Q. Khan 195

28 Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction 201

29 Violence in Iraq 209

Part VI Domestic Law Enforcement 217

30 The Lindbergh Kidnapping 219

31 Breaking the Mafia 225

32 Airline Tragedies: Pan Am Flight 103 and TWA Flight 800 229

33 Aum Shinrikyo 233

34 Colombian Drug Cartels 239

35 Wen Ho Lee 247

36 9/11 251

37 Anthrax Attacks 259

38 DC Snipers 265

Part VII Medicine and Business 269

39 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome 271

40 New Coke 277

41 Japan in the U.S. Car Market 281

Further Recommended Reading 285

Index 287

Editorial Reviews

Serious students of intelligence learn far more from examining the successes and failures of actual cases than they do from abstract theorizing. They want to hear it from someone who has been there and who can speak from firsthand experience. In my opinion, it would be hard to find anyone with better credentials to write a book on intelligence analysis from a practitioner’s standpoint than Tim Walton.”
– James M. Olson, The Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University, and former Chief of CIA Counterintelligence

“Timothy Walton has written the best beginner’s guide to the complex world of intelligence analysis with a historical perspective that also deserves to be pondered by experienced analysts.”
– Christopher Andrew, Corpus Christi College, University of Cambridge, author of The Defence of the Realm: The Authorized History of MI5 and The Mitrokhin Archive: The KGB in Europe and the West

“Timothy Walton offers in these pages a readable and reliable survey of secret intelligence operations, from Biblical times through the contemporary efforts of the Western nations to thwart global terrorist activities perpetrated by Al Qaeda and its allies. The work is a rich mosaic of espionage down through the years, filled with images of shadowy figures and dazzling spy machines.”
– Loch K. Johnson, University of Georgia

From the Publisher