Continuity and Change in House Elections

by David W. Brady (Editor), John F. Cogan (Editor), Morris P. Fiorina (Editor)

Overview

For two decades, extending from the early 1970s to the early 1990s, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives were highly predictable. More than 90 percent of incumbents would seek reelection and more than 90 percent of those incumbents would win—by larger vote margins than in earlier decades. The once-dependable presidential coattail effect diminished, as one-quarter to one-third of all voters split their tickets, supporting presidential and House candidates of different parties. These trends helped the Democrats retain control of the House even while Republican presidential candidates won five of six elections beginning in 1968. An era of “incumbency and insulation” seemed firmly in place.

Then came the 1994 midterm elections. The Republicans gained 52 seats in the House, taking control for the first time in 40 years. Incumbency appeared to have lost its semi-magical status as three dozen incumbents fell. Insulation, too, appeared to have failed, with all the losing incumbents being Democrats, most of them from districts where President Clinton had run poorly in 1992. But did 1994 herald a new era, or was it an aberration?

In some ways, the 1996 elections, which reelected President Clinton, ratified the 1994 upheaval. Republicans retained control of the House, despite the decline of ticket-splitting as more voters aligned their presidential and House voting decisions. The 1998 election results added to the picture of a new era in congressional elections as the presidential party gained seats in a midterm election for the first time since 1934.

Most of the essays in this volume closely examine these recent elections, documenting the erosion of incumbency and insulation, but pointing out important continuities as well. Other essays address the electoral consequences of political change in the South, majority-minority redistricting, PAC contributions, and the changing image of Congress.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780804737395
Publisher:	Stanford University Press
Publication date:	12/01/2000
Edition description:	1
Pages:	320
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x 0.80(d)
Lexile:	1430L (what's this?)

About the Author

David W. Brady is Bowen and Janice McCoy Professor of Political Science at Stanford University. His books include Critical Elections and Congressional Policy Making (Stanford, 1988.) John F. Cogan is Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He is the co-author of The Budget Puzzle: Understanding Federal Spending (Stanford, 1994). Morris P. Fiorina is Professor of Political Science at Stanford Universityand Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is the author, most recently, of Divided Government.

Table of Contents

	List of Contributors	vii
	List of Tables	ix
	List of Figures	xiii
1.	An Introduction to Continuity and Change in House Elections	1
2.	Reversal of Fortune: The Transformation of U.S. House Elections in the 1990s	10
3.	Partisan Changes in the Southern Congressional Delegation and the Consequences	39
4.	Money and Office: The Sources of the Incumbency Advantage in Congressional Campaign Finance	65
5.	Majority-Minority Districts and the New Politics of Congressional Elections	87
6.	Public Disapproval of Congress Can Be Dangerous to Majority Party Candidates: The Case of 1994	110
7.	The Nationalization of Electoral Forces Revisited	130
8.	Representation of Constituency Ideology in Congress	149
9.	Differences in Legislative Voting Behavior Between Winning and Losing House Incumbents	178
10.	The Effect of Party on Issue Emphasis in the 1994 House Elections	193
11.	The Electoral Connection Between Party and Constituency Reconsidered: Evidence from the U.S. House of Representatives, 1972-1994	211
	Epilogue: 1998 and Beyond	235
	Appendix A	249
	Appendix B	251
	Appendix C	253
	Notes	255
	Works Cited	269
	Index	287

Editorial Reviews

"Given the relatively saturated nature of scholarship on congressional elections, it is indeed a compliment to say that Continuity and Change in House Elections, edited by David W. Brady, John F. Cogan, and Morris P. Fiorina, makes a significant contribution to the literature. It convincingly explains why the Republicans gained the majority in the House in 1994. Moreover, the contributors nicely point the way toward a new approach to House elections that more explicitly incorporates political parties and national-level policy into vote choice and election results. . . . This impressive collection articulates a convincing rationale, and demonstrates strong evidence, for [a new theory of congressional elections]."—The Journal of Politics

"Virtually all of the articles in this collection are excellent. . . . The essays in this book provide important insights into the 1994 and 1996 elections. . . ."—Canadian Journal of Political Science

"This edited volume is a major contribution to the literature on congressional elections. The chapters present solid empirical work and fit well together. In addition to providing a thoughtful analysis of the election of 1994, the editors have put together a volume that will give the reader an overview of the major trends, empirical measures, and theoretical questions that motivate this field of research."—American Political Science Review

From the Publisher

"Virtually all of the articles in this collection are excellent. . . . The essays in this book provide important insights into the 1994 and 1996 elections. . . ."

Canadian Journal of Political Science

"Given the relatively saturated nature of scholarship on congressional elections, it is indeed a compliment to say that Continuity and Change in House Elections, edited by David W. Brady, John F. Cogan, and Morris P. Fiorina, makes a significant contribution to the literature. It convincingly explains why the Republicans gained the majority in the House in 1994. Moreover, the contributors nicely point the way toward a new approach to House elections that more explicitly incorporates political parties and national-level policy into vote choice and election results. . . . This impressive collection articulates a convincing rationale, and demonstrates strong evidence, for [a new theory of congressional elections]."

The Journal of Politics

"This edited volume is a major contribution to the literature on congressional elections. The chapters present solid empirical work and fit well together. In addition to providing a thoughtful analysis of the election of 1994, the editors have put together a volume that will give the reader an overview of the major trends, empirical measures, and theoretical questions that motivate this field of research."

American Political Science Review

Political scientists analyze the elections to the US House of Representatives from 1994 to 1998, when decades-old patterns changed. They document the decline of incumbency as a near guarantee of success and of vote-splitting. They also look at topics such as the consequences of political changes in the South, majority-minority redistricting, contributions of political action committees, and the changing image of Congress. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)

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