Cyberwar: How Russian Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect a President: What We Don't, Can't, and Do Know

by Kathleen Hall Jamieson

Overview

The question of how Donald Trump won the 2016 election looms over his presidency. In particular, were the 78,000 voters who gave him an Electoral College victory affected by the Russian trolls and hackers? Trump has denied it. So has Vladimir Putin. Others cast the answer as unknowable. In Cyberwar, Kathleen Hall Jamieson marshals the troll posts, unique polling data, analyses of how the press used hacked content, and a synthesis of half a century of media effects literature to argue that, although not certain, it is probable that the Russians helped elect the 45th president of the United States. In the process, she asks: How extensive was the troll messaging? What characteristics of social media did the Russians exploit? Why did the mainstream press rush the hacked content into the citizenry's newsfeeds? Was Clinton telling the truth when she alleged that the debate moderators distorted what she said in the leaked speeches? Did the Russian influence extend beyond social media and news to alter the behavior of FBI director James Comey? After detailing the ways in which Russian efforts were abetted by the press, social media, candidates, party leaders, and a polarized public, Cyberwar closes with a warning: the country is ill-prepared to prevent a sequel.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780190915834
Publisher:	Oxford University Press
Publication date:	09/24/2018
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	240
File size:	12 MB
Note:	This product may take a few minutes to download.

About the Author

Kathleen Hall Jamieson is Elizabeth Ware Packard Professor at Annenberg School for Communication of the University of Pennsylvania and Director of its Annenberg Public Policy Center and an award-winning scholar. She has authored many books, including Packaging the Presidency, Eloquence in an Electronic Age, Spiral of Cynicism (with Joseph Cappella), and The Obama Victory (with Kate Kenski and Bruce Hardy).

Table of Contents

Preface to the Paperback Prologue Introduction Part One: Who Did It, Why, and How It May Have Mattered Chapter One: How Do We Know that the Russians Meddled in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election? Chapter Two: A Theory of Communication that Posits Effects Part Two: The Pre-Requisites of Influence Chapter Three: Pre-Requisite One: Widespread Messaging Chapter Four: Pre-Requisite Two: Messages Aligned with Trump's Electoral Interests Chapter Five: Pre-Requisite Three: Messages to Mobilize Veterans and White Christians, Demobilizing Blacks and Sanders' Supporters, Shifting Liberals to Stein Chapter Six: Pre-Requisite Four: Well-Targeted Content Chapter Seven: Pre-Requisite Five: Persuasive Appeals Part Three: Exposure: How the Russians Affected the News and Debate Agendas in the Last Month of the Campaign Chapter Eight: The Russian Effect On Press Coverage in October Chapter Nine: The Effect of the Stolen Emails on the Last Two Presidential Debates Chapter Ten: The Russian Effect on the Media Agenda in the Last Days of the Election Part Four: What We Don't, Can't, and Do Know About How Russian Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect Donald J. Trump Afterword: Lessons Appendices Appendix One: Changes in Perceptions of Clinton and Trump in October Appendix Two: Debate 2 and Debate 3 Exposure Effect on Candidate Trait Evaluations Appendix Three: Association between Perception Changes and Vote Intentions References

Editorial Reviews

"Overall, Jamieson provides strong arguments and numerous insightful sources, and her book is recommended for researchers, professors, practitioners, and students interested in policy and social media messaging. Jamieson offers a thoughtful, sophisticated, and rich analysis of the explanatory framework of media effects. This book contributes impressively to our understanding of how Russian hacking and social media messaging altered the content of electoral dialogue that contributed to Donald Trump's victory." — Daniella R. Mehlman-Brightwell, West Liberty University, International Journal of Communication

"A meticulous analysis of online activity during the 2016 campaign makes a powerful case that targeted cyberattacks by hackers and trolls were decisive." - Jane Mayer, The New Yorker

"In her breakthrough new book Cyberwar, Kathleen Hall Jamieson applies her legendary skills to a forensic examination of the Russian hackers, trolls and bots who reshaped American public opinion through social media platforms, using data analytics to achieve maximum impact. Her masterful study provides a compelling answer to the question of whether Russia likely helped elect an American President." — Andrea Mitchell, NBC News Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent, MSNBC Anchor

"Kathleen Hall Jamieson has performed a great service not just for politicians, journalists and curious citizens, but most important, for American democracy, by taking a scholar's approach to answering one of the most urgent and gnawing questions of our time: how did Russia try to influence the U.S. elections of 2016 and how much difference did that make? This is a must read for everyone who cares about the future of the American electoral system." — Judy Woodruff, Anchor and Managing Editor, The PBS NewsHour

"Kathleen Hall Jamieson mounts a strong challenge to the conventional wisdom that the Russia interference in the 2016 presidential race did not affect the outcome. Drawing on her expertise in presidential elections and how messages are received, she shows how the hacked emails influenced the media's focus and traces the powerful synergies between what the trolls were saying and what voters were ready to believe. It is hard to imagine a better application of careful scholarship to a central question for our country and deserves a wide readership." — Robert Jervis, Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Politics, Columbia University

"Offers a detailed and compelling case" — ^ The Washington Post

"Jamieson's illuminating, timely Cyberwar is a major step forward in trying to understand the 'new' media order — and how open this digital landscape is to malicious exploitation." — ^ Nature

"Necessary reading for those interested in the democratic process and its enemies." — ^ Kirkus

"In her breakthrough new book Cyberwar, Kathleen Hall Jamieson applies her legendary skills to a forensic examination of the Russian hackers, trolls and bots who reshaped American public opinion through social media platforms, using data analytics to achieve maximum impact. Her masterful study provides a compelling answer to the question of whether Russia likely helped elect an American Presiden

"Jamieson's expertise in US political communications allows her to unfold what issues were raised, made important, gained traction, and mattered in the back and forth between candidate messaging, media coverage, and voter engagement. Her very title announces the severity and malign intention of the activities she describes." —Katherine Voyles, Public Books

From the Publisher

2018-09-24

Of partisans, trolls, and spooks: a stern dissection of the 2016 election.

Exactly who planned and executed the Russian hacking of the 2016 election is not yet wholly known outside cybercrime circles, but it's clear that the beneficiary was Donald Trump. As Jamieson (Chair, Annenberg Public Policy Center/Univ. of Pennsylvania; Electing the President, 2012: The Insiders' View, 2013, etc.) writes, if you were to war-game out that cybercrime, you'd wind up with numerous scenarios. Only one is truly negative to the Russians: "The cyberattackers are unmasked by a vigilant intelligence community, condemned by those in both major political parties…the Russian messaging…blocked or labeled a Russian propaganda," sanctions put in place, and so on. That did not happen. Characterizing the hacking not as "interference" or "meddling" but as an act of cyberwar demanding proportional response, Jamieson surveys the damage: Millions of Americans swallowed Russian-generated lies and went at each other even as the "electoral systems of twenty-one states by one count and thirty-nine by another were hacked." Allowing that it wasn't Russians but American voters (and the Electoral College) who put Trump in office, the author performs an after-battle analysis of the "social disruption," with hackers hooking former FBI Director James Comey into reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails and even gaming the presidential debates. Jamieson is clear on why the Russians would have targeted Clinton; she is just as clear that the "legacy media" failed in their task and swallowed narrative lines whole—attributing misinformation to WikiLeaks, for one, and not "St. Petersburg," bypassing any discussion of Russian involvement until well after the fact. Chalking up the knowns and unknowns, the author concludes that by commission on one hand and omission on the other, both of the leading nominees "increased our collective vulnerability to Russian machinations in very different ways"—machinations, she adds, that aren't likely to stop.

There's no good news in this book, which both admonishes and forewarns. Somber but necessary reading for those interested in the democratic process and its enemies.

Kirkus Reviews