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Overview
In Energy at the Crossroads, Vaclav Smil considers the twenty-first century's crucial question: how to reconcile the modern world's unceasing demand for energy with the absolute necessity to preserve the integrity of the biosphere. With this book he offers a comprehensive, accessible guide to today's complex energy issues—how to think clearly and logically about what is possible and what is desirable in our energy future.
After a century of unprecedented production growth, technical innovation, and expanded consumption, the world faces a number of critical energy challenges arising from unequal resource distribution, changing demand patterns, and environmental limitations. The fundamental message of Energy at the Crossroads is that our dependence on fossil fuels must be reduced not because of any imminent resource shortages but because the widespread burning of oil, coal, and natural gas damages the biosphere and presents increasing economic and security problems as the world relies on more expensive supplies and Middle Eastern crude oil.
Smil begins with an overview of the twentieth century's long-term trends and achievements in energy production. He then discusses energy prices, the real cost of energy, and "energy linkages"—the effect energy issues have on the economy, on quality of life, on the environment, and in wartime. He discusses the pitfalls of forecasting, giving many examples of failed predictions and showing that unexpected events can disprove complex models. And he examines the pros and cons not only of fossil fuels but also of alternative fuels such as hydroenergy, biomass energy, wind power, and solar power. Finally, he considers the future, focusing on what really matters, what works, what is realistic, and which outcomes are most desirable.
Product Details
ISBN-13: | 9780262303682 |
---|---|
Publisher: | MIT Press |
Publication date: | 02/11/2005 |
Sold by: | Penguin Random House Publisher Services |
Format: | eBook |
Pages: | 444 |
File size: | 7 MB |
About the Author
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments | vii | |
Reflections on a Life of Energy Studies | ix | |
1 | Long-term Trends and Achievements | 1 |
A Unique Century | 3 | |
Changing Resource Base | 10 | |
Technical Innovations | 21 | |
The Rising Importance of Electricity | 31 | |
Trading Energy | 44 | |
Consumption Trends | 49 | |
Looking Back and Looking Ahead | 60 | |
2 | Energy Linkages | 63 |
Energy and the Economy | 65 | |
Deconstructing Energy Intensities | 71 | |
Energy Prices | 81 | |
Real Costs of Energy | 88 | |
Energy and the Quality of Life | 97 | |
Energy and the Environment | 105 | |
Energy and War | 116 | |
3 | Against Forecasting | 121 |
Failing Endeavors | 122 | |
Conversion Techniques | 124 | |
Primary Energy Requirements | 137 | |
Demand for Electricity | 145 | |
Energy Prices and Intensities | 149 | |
Substitutions of Energy Resources | 161 | |
Complex Models and Realities | 167 | |
Unexpected Happenings | 172 | |
In Favor of Normative Scenarios | 178 | |
4 | Fossil Fuel Futures | 181 |
Is the Decline of Global Crude Oil Production Imminent? | 184 | |
Different Perspectives on the Oil Era | 195 | |
How Far Can Natural Gas Go? | 213 | |
What Will Be Coal's Role? | 229 | |
5 | Nonfossil Energies | 239 |
Hydroenergy's Potential and Limits | 246 | |
Biomass Energies | 259 | |
Electricity from Wind | 272 | |
Direct Solar Conversions | 284 | |
How Promising Are Other Renewables? | 290 | |
Infrastructural Changes and the Future Hydrogen Economy | 296 | |
Is There a Future for Nuclear Electricity? | 309 | |
6 | Possible Futures | 317 |
Efficient Use of Energy | 318 | |
Beyond Higher Efficiency | 332 | |
Energy and the Future of the Biosphere | 339 | |
What Really Matters | 349 | |
What Does, and Does Not, Help | 354 | |
Realities and a Wish List | 362 | |
Units and Abbreviations | 375 | |
Prefixes | 377 | |
Acronyms | 379 | |
References | 383 | |
Index | 419 |
What People are Saying About This
Smil has the best macroscope of all current energy analysts.
A wealth of very useful information about energy use, resources, and environmental and socioeconomic impact, and the author's unabashed but educated opinions about approaches to the future. Thought-provoking and highly worthwhile reading for both believers and unbelievers.
An excellent guide for the general reader or university student to complex energy and environmental issues. Smil's critical thinking, independence, and conscious attempts to remain objective while clearly keeping in mind normative goals are, as always, refreshing.
Smil has the best macroscope of all current energy analysts.
Jesse H. Ausubel , Director, Program for the Human Environment, The Rockefeller University
A wealth of very useful information about energy use, resources, and environmental and socioeconomic impact, and the author's unabashed but educated opinions about approaches to the future. Thought-provoking and highly worthwhile reading for both believers and unbelievers.
Professor Noam Lior, Editor-in-Chief, ENERGY - The International JournalAn authoritative and comprehensive look at global energy prospects by one of the world's most respected energy scholars.
Cutler J. Cleveland, Professor and Director, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Boston UniversityVaclav Smil's work stands as a bright light in a sea of dim treatises on the subject of energy. His previous energy books are invaluable and insightful resources, filled with real facts and clear writing. Energy at the Crossroads continues and expands that tradition.
Mark P. Mills, Digital Power CapitalAn excellent guide for the general reader or university student to complex energy and environmental issues. Smil's critical thinking, independence, and conscious attempts to remain objective while clearly keeping in mind normative goals are, as always, refreshing.
Jonthan E. Sinton, Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryVaclav Smil's work stands as a bright light in a sea of dim treatises on the subject of energy. His previous energy books are invaluable and insightful resources, filled with real facts and clear writing. Energy at the Crossroads continues and expands that tradition.
An authoritative and comprehensive look at global energy prospects by one of the world's most respected energy scholars.