Forecasting with Judgment / Edition 1

by George Wright, Paul Goodwin

Overview

This book provides research on the human element in forecasting. It focuses on how we can improve our ability to accurately forecast.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780471970149
Publisher:	Wiley
Publication date:	04/22/1998
Pages:	350
Product dimensions:	6.20(w) x 9.17(h) x 0.90(d)

About the Author

George Wright has held Faculty positions at LBS and Leeds Business School and is currently at Strathclyde Graduate School of Business, where he consults to major blue-chip clients such as Philips and IBM. He has conducted extensive research into the role of judgement in forecasting and decision making, with particular emphasis on the simplification strategies of managers which lead to poor decisions. He has published both academic and trade books on forecasting and decision making, and contributed to various journals within the field. He founded the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making with Wiley in 1988 and is Associate Editor of the Wiley Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting.

Paul Goodwin, PhD, is Professor Emeritus at University of Bath, Bath, UK, where he teaches courses on Management Science, business forecasting, and decision analysis. He regularly conducts workshops at forecasting events around the world. A Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, he is a well-known keynote speaker at SAS.

Table of Contents

Judgment: Its Role and Value for Strategy (S. Makridakis & A. Gaba).

Scenario Planning: Scaffolding Disorganized Ideas about the Future (K. van der Heijden).

Judgmental Forecasting and the Use of Available Information (M. O'Connor & M. Lawrence).

Enhancing Judgmental Sales Forecasting: The Role of Laboratory Research (P. Goodwin).

Heuristics and Biases in Judgmental Forecasting (F. Bolger & N. Harvey).

Financial Forecasting with Judgment (D. Önkal-Atay).

Reasoning with Category Knowledge in Probability Forecasting: Typicality and Perceived Variability Effects (G. Browne & S. Curley).

The Use of Structured Groups to Improve Judgmental Forecasting (G. Rowe).

How Bad Is Human Judgment?

(P. Ayton).

Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting: Principles from Empirical Research (J. Armstrong & F. Collopy).

Index.