Future War and the Defence of Europe
Future War and the Defence of Europe offers a major new analysis of how peace and security can be maintained in Europe: a continent that has suffered two cataclysmic conflicts since 1914. Taking as its starting point the COVID-19 pandemic and way it will inevitably accelerate some key global dynamics already in play, the book goes on to weave history, strategy, policy, and technology into a compelling analytical narrative. It lays out in forensic detail the scale of the challenge Europeans and their allies face if Europe's peace is to be upheld in a transformative century. The book upends foundational assumptions about how Europe's defence is organised, the role of a fast-changing transatlantic relationship, NATO, the EU, and their constituent nation-states. At the heart of the book is a radical vision of a technology-enabling future European defence, built around a new kind of Atlantic Alliance, an innovative strategic public-private partnership, and the future hyper-electronic European force, E-Force, it must spawn. Europeans should be under no illusion: unless they do far more for their own defence, and very differently, all that they now take for granted could be lost in the maze of hybrid war, cyber war, and hyper war they must face.
1137648148
Future War and the Defence of Europe
Future War and the Defence of Europe offers a major new analysis of how peace and security can be maintained in Europe: a continent that has suffered two cataclysmic conflicts since 1914. Taking as its starting point the COVID-19 pandemic and way it will inevitably accelerate some key global dynamics already in play, the book goes on to weave history, strategy, policy, and technology into a compelling analytical narrative. It lays out in forensic detail the scale of the challenge Europeans and their allies face if Europe's peace is to be upheld in a transformative century. The book upends foundational assumptions about how Europe's defence is organised, the role of a fast-changing transatlantic relationship, NATO, the EU, and their constituent nation-states. At the heart of the book is a radical vision of a technology-enabling future European defence, built around a new kind of Atlantic Alliance, an innovative strategic public-private partnership, and the future hyper-electronic European force, E-Force, it must spawn. Europeans should be under no illusion: unless they do far more for their own defence, and very differently, all that they now take for granted could be lost in the maze of hybrid war, cyber war, and hyper war they must face.
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Future War and the Defence of Europe

Future War and the Defence of Europe

Future War and the Defence of Europe

Future War and the Defence of Europe

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Overview

Future War and the Defence of Europe offers a major new analysis of how peace and security can be maintained in Europe: a continent that has suffered two cataclysmic conflicts since 1914. Taking as its starting point the COVID-19 pandemic and way it will inevitably accelerate some key global dynamics already in play, the book goes on to weave history, strategy, policy, and technology into a compelling analytical narrative. It lays out in forensic detail the scale of the challenge Europeans and their allies face if Europe's peace is to be upheld in a transformative century. The book upends foundational assumptions about how Europe's defence is organised, the role of a fast-changing transatlantic relationship, NATO, the EU, and their constituent nation-states. At the heart of the book is a radical vision of a technology-enabling future European defence, built around a new kind of Atlantic Alliance, an innovative strategic public-private partnership, and the future hyper-electronic European force, E-Force, it must spawn. Europeans should be under no illusion: unless they do far more for their own defence, and very differently, all that they now take for granted could be lost in the maze of hybrid war, cyber war, and hyper war they must face.

Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780192597861
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Publication date: 03/25/2021
Sold by: Barnes & Noble
Format: eBook
Pages: 328
Sales rank: 793,210
File size: 1 MB

About the Author

John R. Allen is President of the Brookings Institution. He was previously Commander of the NATO International Security Assistance Force and U.S. Forces in Afghanistan from 2011 to 2013, and is the recipient of numerous U.S. and foreign awards. Frederick Ben Hodges holds the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis. He was previously Commander of the United States Army Europe from 2014 to 2017. Julian Lindley-French is a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Statecraft. He is also founder and chair of The Alphen Group, a high-level strategic 'do-tank'. His publications and high-level reports combine policy experience and academic expertise, and include A Chronology of European Security and Defence (OUP, 2008) and The Oxford Handbook of War (edited with Y Boyer, OUP, 2014).

Table of Contents

About the authors xv

The Ten-Year Rule xix

Scenario 1 Europe defeated 1

COVID-29 1

Far, far away … 4

Chaos in the south 6

North Cape 8

War! 11

Crash! 13

If only … 13

Meanwhile … 16

War in the Ease 16

End-game 17

America overstretched, Europe defeated 18

Introduction 21

The hinge of history 21

Megatrends, technology, and European decline 31

The state of the debate 33

The structure of the book 37

Power and defence 39

1 COVID-19 and the European defence dilemma 42

The defence implications of COVLD-19 42

COVID-19 and the shifting balance of power 45

National distancing? 48

Comprehensive security and national defence 51

Russia, 5D warfare, and information shock 54

The world beyond COVID-19 58

COVID-19, Europe, and military megatrends 60

European defence in the post-COVID-19 world 66

2 The end of the beginning? 69

D-Day, NATO, and the importance of legitimate military power 69

Defence and power 73

European defence and leadership 75

NATO and the importance of alliance 77

Europe and European defence 78

An uneasy Alliance 80

Coping with peace 81

Integration or isolation? 84

A new hinge of history? 86

3 Russia and Europe's northern and eastern flanks 89

Another bloody European war? 89

Complex strategic coercion and the nature of future war 90

Why complex strategic coercion? 94

The Russian national interest under Putin 97

How strong are Russia's armed forces? 100

Road-bumps on the way to Russia's future force 104

Russia versus Europe 109

The Black Sea region and the virtual Soviet Union 112

Turkey, Russia, and the values-interest dilemma 114

Conclusion: a challenging neighbourhood 119

4 Demons and dragons: Europe's southern flank 124

360-degree Europe? 124

The state versus the anti-state 127

Syria and the humbling of the West 131

The prospects of regional-strategic war 135

Iran and the West's nuclear dilemma 137

Libya, Europe, and failed transition 141

COVID-19 and fragile states 142

MENA and the bonfire of European illusions 145

5 China 148

The irresistible rise of China? 148

Jekyll and Hyde China 152

Chinaization 154

Belt and chains? 157

China, the US, and European defence 160

COVID-19, China, and geopolitics 166

6 Could NATO (still) defend Europe? 169

America, Europe, and multi-domain warfare 169

Overstretch and under-stretch 172

The US, NATO, and the future defence of Europe … 177

… and deterring means defending 179

NATO: adapting to what? 181

NATO, the UK, and COVID-19 184

Future war NATO? 189

Europeans must wake up and smell the American coffee 191

7 Could Europe defend Europe? 194

The European defence of Europe 194

Strategic autonomy? 196

The Franco-German defence axis 197

Strategic autonomy is a consequence 200

An integrated European defence? 202

A European strategic public-private defence partnership? 203

Can Europeans defence innovate? 204

PESCO 207

Could Europe defend Europe? 209

8 Hyperwar: Europe's digital and nuclear flanks 216

The digital Dreadnought 216

Hyperwar law 218

NATO and hyper-deterrence 219

Europe and hyperwar 222

5G, digital decapitation, and disruptive technologies 225

Europe's nuclear flank 229

Public policy, private technology 236

The revolution in (applied) military technology 239

The gathering (tech-)storm 244

Technology and future defence 245

9 Defending Europe 246

A return to European statecraft 246

Specific lessons from COVID-19 248

Managing Russia: the new dual-track 250

Re-establishing European strategic realism and responsibility 254

Building a strategic public-private partnership 258

Crafting the future NATO-EU strategic partnership 261

Sharpening the spear-tip of NATO 263

Future was and the defence of Europe 270

Scenario 2 Europe defended 276

COVID-29 276

Salafist chaos: resisted and restored 278

A new European war? 279

The Second Battle of North Cape 281

Land war 282

Crash and counter-crash! 284

The future war, future defence of Europe has held 285

Bibliography 287

Index 307

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