Immigrants and Boomers: Forging a New Social Contract for the Future of America

by Dowell Myers

Overview

"This story of hope for both immigrants and native-born Americans is a well-researched, insightful, and illuminating study that provides compelling evidence to support a policy of homegrown human investment as a new priority. A timely, valuable addition to demographic and immigration studies. Highly recommended." —Choice Virtually unnoticed in the contentious national debate over immigration is the significant demographic change about to occur as the first wave of the Baby Boom generation retires, slowly draining the workforce and straining the federal budget to the breaking point.  In this forward-looking new book, noted demographer Dowell Myers proposes a new way of thinking about the influx of immigrants and the impending retirement of the Baby Boomers. Myers argues that each of these two powerful demographic shifts may hold the keys to resolving the problems presented by the other. Immigrants and Boomers looks to California as a bellwether state—where whites are no longer a majority of the population and represent just a third of residents under age twenty—to afford us a glimpse into the future impact of immigration on the rest of the nation. Myers opens with an examination of the roots of voter resistance to providing social services for immigrants. Drawing on detailed census data, Myers demonstrates that long-established immigrants have been far more successful than the public believes. Among the Latinos who make up the bulk of California's immigrant population, those who have lived in California for over a decade show high levels of social mobility and use of English, and 50 percent of Latino immigrants become homeowners after twenty years. The impressive progress made by immigrant families suggests they have the potential to pick up the slack from aging boomers over the next two decades. The mass retirement of the boomers will leave critical shortages in the educated workforce, while shrinking ranks of middle-class tax payers and driving up entitlement expenditures. In addition, as retirees sell off their housing assets, the prospect of a generational collapse in housing prices looms. Myers suggests that it is in the boomers' best interest to invest in the education and integration of immigrants and their children today in order to bolster the ranks of workers, taxpayers, and homeowners America they will depend on ten and twenty years from now. In this compelling, optimistic book, Myers calls for a new social contract between the older and younger generations, based on their mutual interests and the moral responsibility of each generation to provide for children and the elderly. Combining a rich scholarly perspective with keen insight into contemporary political dilemmas, Immigrants and Boomers creates a new framework for understanding the demographic challenges facing America and forging a national consensus to address them.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780871546241
Publisher:	Russell Sage Foundation
Publication date:	07/28/2008
Pages:	380
Product dimensions:	5.90(w) x 8.90(h) x 1.00(d)

About the Author

DOWELL MYERS is professor of urban planning and demography at the University of Southern California.

Table of Contents

Contents Chapter 1 Introduction Viewing the Future Through the California Window How Much Should We Welcome Immigrants? Rebuilding the Social Contract of a Divided Society Pursuing a Future of Hope or Despair? The Drama Unfolding Section I. IMMIGRATION AND THE GREAT TRANSITION Chapter 2 Knowing and Making the Future Who Knows and Leads the Future? Politicians, Experts, or Citizens? Simple Devices Tunnel Vision Extrapolated Expectations Future Immigrants Extrapolated Expectations of Numbers of Future Foreign Born Professional Knowledge of Future Immigrant Numbers Questions About Characteristics and Consequences A Future Driven by Hope or Despair Choice of Two Competing Stories of Immigration The Circularity of Expectations, Reactions, and Results Making, not Predicting, a Future We Know is Possible Chapter 3 Demographic Transition in California and the U.S. Is California the Leading Edge? A Long View on the Great Transition The Classical Demographic Transition A Second Demographic Transition The Third Great Transition: Aging, Immigration, and Ethnicity Population Growth and Aging Graying of the Population Impacts on the Labor Force and Economy Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition Immigration and a Growing Foreign Born Population Our Immigration History The Trend in Foreign Born Share Annual Arrival of Legal and Unauthorized Immigrants Growth of a Longer Settled Immigrant Population Conclusion Chapter 4 A Dismal Future? Outlook in the Early Transition Period Roots of Pessimism Concentrated Calamity in California Natural Disaster Economic Depression Social Breakdown and Illegal Immigration Perceived Trends and Opinions on Immigration The "Take Off and Take Over" By Foreign Born Residents Public Opinion on Immigration Seniority Position and Fears of Social Decline Race and the Future Foreignness of American Society Culture and Allegiance Confusion of Seniority and Trends Conclusion: Extrapolations of Lost Control Chapter 5 California Turnaround: A Renewed Basis for Optimism? Turnaround of Background Trends Quality of Life The Economic Turnaround The Immigration Turnaround Growing Immigration or Growing Ethnicity? California's Falling Attraction of New Immigrants: A Puzzle Dispersal of Immigrants Nationwide A Preponderance of More Settled Immigrants Conclusion: End of an Unsettled Era Chapter 6 Immigrant Upward Mobility Supporting a More Hopeful Future The Illusion of Immigrant Non-Advancement Blinded by the Concentration of Newcomers The Peter Pan Fallacy Samuel Huntington's Misconclusion Upward Mobility over Time Selected Indicators of Immigrant Advancement and Incorporation The Surprising Turnaround in Poverty Rates Projecting the Immigrant Escape from Poverty Immigrant Entry Into Homeownership Conclusion: Basis for a More Hopeful Outlook Section II. SELF-INTEREST AND GOVERNANCE Chapter 7 Political Lag During the Demographic Transition Seniority, Time Perspective, and Voting Power Seniority and Minority Dominance in Compton Explaining The Imbalance of Population and Voting in At-large Elections Seniority and Political Participation A Challenge to Democracy? Disparities Between Voting Preferences of Whites and Others A Feared Decline in Quality of Life Trust in Government and Confidence in Planning Effectiveness Dislike of Population Growth Are Immigrants a Burden or Benefit? Preferences for Public Spending and Taxing Resistance to Budget Cuts in Services The Preferred Balance of Spending and Taxing The Impact of Perceived Immigrant Burden The Future Trajectory of the Electorate Projections of Continued White Dominance in the Electorate Dynamics of White Majority Influence Conclusions on The Demographic Voting Imbalance Chapter 8 An Evolving Social Contract with Many Strands What is a Social Contract? A Flexible Definition An Evolving, Multiface