Interpreting Congressional Elections: The Curious Case of the Incumbency Effect / Edition 1

by Jeffrey M. Stonecash

Overview

The increase in the "incumbency effect" has long dominated as a research focus and as a framework for interpreting congressional elections. This important new book challenges the empirical claim that incumbents are doing better and the research paradigm that accompanied the claim. It also offers an alternative interpretation of House elections since the 1960s. In a style that is provocative yet fair, learned, and transparent, Jeffrey Stonecash makes a two-pronged argument: frameworks and methodologies suffer when they stop being critically considered, and patterns of House elections over the long term actually reflect party change and realignment. A must-read for scholars and students of congressional elections.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781138479876
Publisher:	Taylor & Francis
Publication date:	06/13/2018
Pages:	254
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x (d)

About the Author

Jeffrey M. Stonecash is Emeritus Maxwell Professor of Political Science at Syracuse University. He is the author or editor of over twenty books on American political parties, polling, and elections.

Table of Contents

Part I: A Conventional Wisdom and Its Importance

1. The Fortunes of Incumbents and Interpreting Political Change

2. Vanishing Marginals, a Research Agenda, and Political Responsiveness

Part II: The Data and Doubts

3. The Basics: Percentages, Averages, and Careers

4. The Presidential–House Connection Issue

5. The Gelman-King Estimation (and the Role of Open Seats)

Part III: The Role and Emergence of a Paradigm

6. The Puzzle and an Interpretative Framework: Kuhn

7. Embracing One Paradigm and Discarding Another

8. A Consensus and Normal Science

9. Embracing and Sustaining a Paradigm: Why?

Part IV: An Alternative

10. An Alternative Framework and Analysis

11. Paradigms and Understanding American Politics

Bibliography

Index

Editorial Reviews

Praise for Interpreting Congressional Elections

Incumbency and its powers have become an all-purpose bedrock for building explanations in American politics. Jeffrey Stonecash puts a bundle of intellectual dynamite under that bedrock, leaving only shattered remnants of the arguments built upon it. Yet Stonecash is after even bigger game, using the evolution of the alleged powers of incumbency as an example of the larger paradigms that determine scholarly questions, organize research, and pre-select evidence. A sobering look back at two generations of research that triumphed on an academic level but failed as a mirror of real politics.

Byron E. Shafer, University of Wisconsin

This provocative book challenges one of American political science’s central findings of the past half-century: the increased safety of congressional incumbents. Demonstrating that powerful normative assumptions have been built around what is essentially a data artifact, Stonecash persuasively argues that incumbency advantages are repeatedly misidentified and miscalculated by ignoring strategic retirements, partisan differences, and long-term realignment.

Seth Masket, University of Denver

This well-written, thoroughly documented, novel, and certainly provocative book addresses a problem of long standing in American electoral politics. With admirable clarity, it offers an important alternative view of political change in the U.S. House that emphasizes the goals and behavior of political parties, rather than individual politicians. This is a wonderful contribution that I look forward to seeing in print.

Walter J. Stone, University of California-Davis

Stonecash clearly and rigorously challenges conventional wisdom about how officeholders get into office and expand their vote margins. Interpreting Congressional Elections not only invites new research in an old field, but also trains students in how to carefully scrutinize an argument to see if it holds up. A must for scholars and students of U.S. elections.

Robin Kolodny, Temple University

Jeffrey Stonecash has a knack for challenging the conventional wisdom on American politics in ways few other political scientists can. With this book, he has done it again: Interpreting Congressional Elections is the most authoritative study of U.S. House elections in decades. Stonecash carefully reevaluates the evidence on the electoral fortunes of House members and sheds important new light on the nature of the incumbency advantage.

Brian Frederick, Bridgewater State University

From the Publisher