Publishers Weekly
10/24/2022
Smil (How the World Really Works), a professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba, takes a thought-provoking look at what “the long trajectory of inventions” suggests about what to expect in the future. To offer “a modest reminder of the world as it is, not the world of exaggerated claims or, even worse, the imaginary world of indefensible fantasies,” Smil considers three types of “failed inventions.” There are “unfulfilled promises,” which arrived with great expectations, but ended up being so harmful they were banned (DDT and chlorofluorocarbons among them); “disappointments,” which initially seemed poised to dominate their markets, only to disappear (supersonic aircraft, for example); and “eventual rejections,” or inventions that would be game-changers, but won’t arrive any time soon, such as high-speed travel in a vacuum and generating electricity through nuclear fusion. His survey leads him to a list of the inventions “we need most” (specifically in the fields of water treatment, agriculture, and electricity distribution) and to the sobering conclusion that the future will likely look like the past: full of failures. This is a solid corrective to the notion that human inventiveness can tackle any challenge. (Feb.)
From the Publisher
Included in BILL GATES's 2023 Holiday Reading List
Included in Lit Hub’s Most Anticipated Books of 2023
Included in The Next Big Idea Club’s February 2023 Must-Read Books
"Every Smil book that I own is marked up with lots of notes that I take while reading. Invention and Innovation is no exception. Even when I disagree with him, I learn a lot from him...he always strengthens my thinking."
—Bill Gates, Gates Notes
"In what is essentially a history of invention (and therefore, in many ways, a history of civilization) Smil reminds us that human beings tend to fail a lot more than they succeed. And yet we are forever striving after better ways to do things, straining toward some perfectible society that no single generation will ever reach. Though Smil warns against our seemingly innate compulsion to overpromise, he also celebrates our capacity for collective innovation, and recognizes we’re going to need a lot of good ideas to get us out of the 21st century."
—Lit Hub
"Smil, the author of more than 40 books on scientific subjects and global matters, is always worth reading...An informative, entertaining package from a gifted, original thinker."
—Kirkus Reviews
"Smil (How the World Really Works), a professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba, takes a thought-provoking look at what “the long trajectory of inventions” suggests about what to expect in the future...This is a solid corrective to the notion that human inventiveness can tackle any challenge."
—Publishers Weekly
"While general usage tends to regard the terms invention and innovation as interchangeable synonyms, the eagle-eyed engineer will already be aware of the subtle but important difference between the two. While invention is focused on coming up with the ideas and discoveries in the first place, as Vaclav Smil says in his latest in a long line of highly readable analyses of the modern world."
—E&T, Engineering & Technology
"As an environmentalist and energy writer, Vaclav Smil is well placed to analyse the impact of past and promised inventions and innovations. He distinguishes between these concepts: innovation, he says, involves “mastering new materials, products, processes and ideas”. He focuses engagingly on three types of “failed” invention: welcomed but then unwelcome (for example, leaded petrol and the pesticide DDT); over-hyped (such as nuclear fission and supersonic flight); and undelivered (including travel by vacuum tube and controlled nuclear fusion)."
—Nature
"The prolific Smil (emer., Univ. of Manitoba), whose 40 published titles include Energy and Civilization and Global Catastrophes and Trends, examines the history of innovation failure since the 1860s. Briefly distinguishing between invention and innovation (an outcome), he sorts the latter into three categories: those that failed to dominate, those that were disastrous, and those still promised but yet to appear. Topical examples include fuel additives, nuclear energy, supersonic flight, hyperloop (vacuum tube) transport, and nitrogen-fixing cereals... Smil deftly supports his arguments with rich details and sobering statistics, calling for the need to improve the life of the world's population while avoiding impacts to the biosphere."
—CHOICE
"Smil, put a sharp focus on the hype cycle that drives so many tech innovations, like AI and biotech. For one example, he turns his lens on the often-promised microreactor revolution in nuclear power, scoffing that as of yet “no nation has announced any specific, detailed, and binding commitment to what would have to be a multidecadal program of reactor construction.” In other words as we’ve noted here in DFD, the future might be coming, but it’s often hard to build."
—Politico
Kirkus Reviews
2022-09-21
A highly respected scientist takes a close, cleareyed look at the processes of invention.
Smil, the author of more than 40 books on scientific subjects and global matters, is always worth reading. In his latest, the author investigates some technologies that have not lived up to their promise despite huge investments of effort and capital. In the first section, he explores three inventions—leaded gasoline, DDT insecticide, and chlorofluorocarbons—that were initially welcomed but later shunned as environmentally hazardous. This was mainly due to the long-term consequences not being fully understood or the balance of benefits and disadvantages not being properly measured. Basically, they seemed like good ideas at the time. The second category deals with inventions that were supposed to be world changing but never quite got out of a niche—e.g., airships, nuclear fission, and supersonic travel. In these cases, the inventions were overtaken by alternatives that were cheaper and less dangerous. Then there are ideas that failed to mature into useful technology, like nuclear fusion, high-speed travel in vacuum tubes (hyperloop), and nitrogen-fixing cereal crops. These are all intriguing concepts, but there have always been problems that stubbornly resist solutions, and 90% of a breakthrough does not count for much. Smil clearly understands the technical issues involved, but he avoids jargon, and he has a cheeky sense of humor. He wonders why technologies that are proven failures receive regular bursts of enthusiasm, and he points to the media as a primary culprit. A novel, earth-shaking invention is an easy headline even if the fine print shows that real-world application is decades away. In fact, the author shows how new-generation supersonic travel would not markedly improve our lives. Today, the most crucial technologies involve better water treatment methods and improved agricultural yields. It may be unglamorous work, but advancements in both would make a critical difference.
An informative, entertaining package from a gifted, original thinker.
