Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections

by W. Joseph Campbell

Overview

This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections.

Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. 

As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780520397828
Publisher:	University of California Press
Publication date:	02/20/2024
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	368
Sales rank:	569,927
File size:	9 MB

About the Author

W. Joseph Campbell is an American writer, historian, and media critic who is the author of six other books, including the award-winning Getting It Wrong: Debunking the Greatest Myths in American Journalism.

Table of Contents

Contents

List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes 
Acknowledgments 

Introduction: Of Pollsters, Journalists, and Presidential Elections 
1. Of Poll-Bashing Journalists and the “Babe Ruth” of Survey Research 
2. “A Time of Polls Gone Mad”: The Literary Digest Debacle of 1936 
3. “The Defeat of the Pollsters”: The Epic Fail of 1948 
4. A Tie “Would Suit Them Fine”: The 1952 Landslide Pollsters Did Not Foresee 
5. The “Close Race That Never Happened”: Miscalling the 1980 Election 
6. “Television’s Version of ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’”: The Trifecta of 2000 
7. “President Kerry”: Exit Polls Misfire in 2004 
8. “Gallup vs. the World”: Pointing the Wrong Way in 2012 
9. “The Night That Wasn’t Supposed to Happen”: The Shock Election of 2016 
10. A “Stinking Pile of Hot Garbage”: Polls of 2020 Were the Worst in Forty Years 
Conclusion: Will It Happen Again? 

Notes 
Select Bibliography 
Index

Editorial Reviews

02/05/2024

Campbell (Getting It Wrong), a professor of communication at American University, offers a lively tour through past polling failures of American presidential elections, updated since its original 2020 publication with a new chapter on the that year’s election, which was polling’s worst performance in 40 years. Polls at the time were near unanimous in overestimating Joe Biden’s performance against incumbent Donald Trump, predicting an eight-to-12-point lead for the Democrat, but Biden won by a much smaller margin. Campbell relates the ensuing drama with panache (“For a time, Election Night unspooled as a strange replay of 2016”) while neatly evaluating a dizzying number of theories for the misfire (including polls’ failure to adjust sample data for respondents who were unlikely to vote, journalists’ embrace of the polls over reporting, the number of late-deciding voters, dishonest answers from respondents, sample errors, and fewer responses from Republicans). Despite the surfeit of ways polling can be rendered useless and inaccurate (which is likewise attested to in the book’s previously published sections on historical polling mishaps), Campbell makes a strong case for the continued civic value of polling, arguing for instance that polls gin up public interest during election season. The result is an entertaining and informative peek into a recently much-maligned aspect of U.S. elections. (Feb.)

Publishers Weekly

"A fast-moving narrative history of some attempts to gauge public opinion amid electoral politics. . . . Campbell’s gaze goes far beyond the Beltway and back further in history than the astonishing election night four years ago." 

Wall Street Journal

"This extensively researched and engagingly written volume profiles early pioneers of polling…highlighting their contributions, missteps, and non infrequent competitiveness and hubris."

The Journal of American History

"Campbell’s book is a tour de force on the history of presidential polling.

Civitas Institute

"A lively account of the personalities and squabbles, the greatest hits and equally great misses, that marked polling’s U.S. ascent. . . . Campbell provides a brisk historical tour of technical breakthroughs like probability sampling and new instruments such as the exit poll. It is not exactly a tale of progress."

Reviews in American History

"Campbell’s book is well-written, impressively researched, and detailed. . . . Lost in a Gallup comes alive as Campbell relays the internal critiques, jealousies, evaluations, and self-assessments of the pollsters."

Journalism History

"Campbell’s journalistic style is engaging, and he covers a tremendous amount of ground. . . . [he] raises important and timely questions about both polling and journalism performance."

Public Opinion Quarterly

"Campbell shows how other errors have bedeviled the polling industry since 1936 despite decades of advances in computer power and statistical sophistication. It is difficult to read Campbell’s book without empathizing with the pollsters and (crucially, as Campbell observes) the journalists and pundits interpreting and amplifying their conclusions."

Milken Institute Review