Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models
In his challenging new book Rein Taagepera argues that society needs more from social sciences than they have delivered. One reason for falling short is that social sciences have depended excessively on regression and other statistical approaches, neglecting logical model building. Science is not only about the empirical 'What is?' but also very much about the conceptual 'How should it be on logical grounds?' Statistical approaches are essentially descriptive, while quantitatively formulated logical models are predictive in an explanatory way. Why Social Sciences Are Not Scientific Enough contrasts the predominance of statistics in today's social sciences and predominance of quantitatively predictive logical models in physics. It shows how to construct predictive models and gives social science examples. Why Social Sciences Are Not Scientific Enough is useful to students who wish to learn the basics of the scientific method and to all those researchers who look for ways to do better social science.
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Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models
In his challenging new book Rein Taagepera argues that society needs more from social sciences than they have delivered. One reason for falling short is that social sciences have depended excessively on regression and other statistical approaches, neglecting logical model building. Science is not only about the empirical 'What is?' but also very much about the conceptual 'How should it be on logical grounds?' Statistical approaches are essentially descriptive, while quantitatively formulated logical models are predictive in an explanatory way. Why Social Sciences Are Not Scientific Enough contrasts the predominance of statistics in today's social sciences and predominance of quantitatively predictive logical models in physics. It shows how to construct predictive models and gives social science examples. Why Social Sciences Are Not Scientific Enough is useful to students who wish to learn the basics of the scientific method and to all those researchers who look for ways to do better social science.
65.49 In Stock
Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

by Rein Taagepera
Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

by Rein Taagepera

eBook

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Overview

In his challenging new book Rein Taagepera argues that society needs more from social sciences than they have delivered. One reason for falling short is that social sciences have depended excessively on regression and other statistical approaches, neglecting logical model building. Science is not only about the empirical 'What is?' but also very much about the conceptual 'How should it be on logical grounds?' Statistical approaches are essentially descriptive, while quantitatively formulated logical models are predictive in an explanatory way. Why Social Sciences Are Not Scientific Enough contrasts the predominance of statistics in today's social sciences and predominance of quantitatively predictive logical models in physics. It shows how to construct predictive models and gives social science examples. Why Social Sciences Are Not Scientific Enough is useful to students who wish to learn the basics of the scientific method and to all those researchers who look for ways to do better social science.

Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780191560033
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Publication date: 07/24/2008
Sold by: Barnes & Noble
Format: eBook
File size: 2 MB

About the Author

Rein Taagepera has B.A.Sc. in engineering physics plus M.A. in physics from University of Toronto and Ph.D. in solid state physics plus M.A. in international relations from University of Delaware. After 6 years of industrial research at DuPont Co., he has taught political science at University of California, Irvine since 1970 and also at University of Tartu, Estonia since 1992. He ran third in Estonia's presidential elections 1992, and was in 2001 the founding chair of a political party that later won the elections. He has over 100 research articles in electoral studies, comparative politics, Baltic area studies, Finno-Ugric linguistics, and physics. His books include Seats and Votes (with Matthew Shugart), The Baltic States: Years of Dependence 1940-1990 (with Romuald Misiunas), The Finno-Ugric Republics and the Russian State, and and Predicting Party Sizes (Oxford University Press).

Table of Contents

List of Figures xiii

List of Tables xv

Part I The Limitations of Descriptive Methodology

1 Why Social Sciences Are Not Scientific Enough 3

2 Can Social Science Approaches Find the Law of Gravitation? 14

3 How to Construct Predictive Models: Simplicity and Nonabsurdity 23

4 Example of Model Building: Electoral Volatility 34

5Physicists Multiply, Social Scientists Add-Even When It Does Not Add Up 52

6 All Hypotheses Are Not Created Equal 71

7 Why Most Numbers Published in Social Sciences Are Dead on Arrival 82

Part II Quantitatively Predictive Logical Models

8 Forbidden Areas and Anchor Points 95

9 Geometric Means and Lognormal Distributions 120

10 Example of Interlocking Models: Party Sizes and Cabinet Duration 130

11 Beyond Constraint-Based Models: Communication Channels and Growth Rates 139

12 Why we should Shift to Symmetric Regression 154

13 All Indices Are Not Created Equal 176

Part III Synthesis of Predictive and Descriptive Approaches

14 From Descriptive to Predictive Approaches 187

15 Recommendations for Better Regression 199

16 Converting from Descriptive Analysis to Predictive Models 215

17 Are Electoral Studies a Rosetta Stone for Parts of Social Sciences? 225

18 Beyond Regression: The Need for Predictive Models 236

References 241

Index 249

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