Table of Contents
PREFACE xiii
USING THIS BOOK xix
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xxiii
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS FOR CASES xxv
ABOUT THE AUTHORS xxvii
PART I 1
1. Introduction 3 1.0 Models and Modeling 3 1.1 Well-Structured versus Ill-Structured Problems 4 1.2 Modeling versus Problem Solving 5 1.3 Modeling for Insight 6 1.4 Novice Modelers and Expert Modelers 7 1.5 Craft Skills in Modeling 8 1.6 A Structured Modeling Process 9 1.7 Modeling Tools 9 1.8 Summary 10
2. Foundations of Modeling for Insight 11 2.0 Introduction 11 2.1 The Modeling Process 11 2.2 Tools for Modeling 19 2.3 Presentation Skills 26 2.4 Summary 34
3. Spreadsheet Engineering 36 3.0 Why Use Spreadsheets? 36 3.1 Spreadsheet Engineering 37 3.2 Summary 49
PART II 51
4. A First Example—The Red Cross Problem 53 4.0 Introduction 53 4.1 The Red Cross Problem 53 4.2 Bringing Blood Quality into the Analysis 69 4.3 Improving and Iterating 78 4.4 Summary 79
5. Retirement Planning Problem 80 5.0 Introduction 80 5.1 Retirement Planning (A) 80 5.2 Retirement Planning (B) 99 5.3 Retirement Planning (C) 107 5.4 Presentation of Results 112 5.5 Summary 122
6. Technology Option 122 6.0 Introduction 122 6.1 Technology Option (A) 122 6.2 Technology Option (B) 131 6.3 Additional Refi nements 138 6.4 Presentation of Results 147 6.5 Summary 152
PART III 155
7. MediDevice 157 7.0 Introduction 157 7.1 MediDevice Case (A) 157 7.2 Revising the Model 172 7.3 MediDevice Case (B) 178 7.4 Presentation of Results 184 7.5 Summary 190
8. Draft Commercials 194 8.0 Introduction 194 8.1 Draft Commercials Case 194 8.2 Frame the Problem 196 8.3 Diagram the Problem 198 8.4 M1 Model and Analysis 200 8.5 M2 Model and Analysis 205 8.6 M3 Model and Analysis 207 8.7 M4 Model and Analysis 216 8.8 Presentation of Results 222 8.9 Summary 232
9. New England College Skiway 233 9.0 Introduction 233 9.1 New England College Skiway Case 233 9.2 Frame the Problem 234 9.3 Diagram the Problem 237 9.4 M1 Model and Analysis 239 9.5 Analyzing Mountain Capacity 246 9.6 M2 Model and Analysis 250 9.7 M3 Model and Analysis 256 9.8 Considering Uncertainty 273 9.9 Presentation of Results 274 9.10 Summary 283
10. National Leasing, Inc. 285 10.0 Introduction 285 10.1 National Leasing Case 286 10.2 Frame the Problem 289 10.3 Diagram the Problem 291 10.4 M1 Model and Analysis 293 10.5 M2 Model and Analysis 304 10.6 M3 Model and Analysis 313 10.7 M4 Model and Analysis 319 10.8 Presentation of Results 324 10.9 Summary 333
11. Pharma X and Pharma Y 334 11.0 Introduction 334 11.1 The Pharma X and Pharma Y Case 334 11.2 Frame the Problem 338 11.3 Diagram the Problem 339 11.4 Expected Value or Simulation? 340 11.5 M1 Model and Analysis 341 11.6 M2 Model and Analysis 354 11.7 M3 Model and Analysis 366 11.8 Presentation of Results 372 11.9 Summary 380
12. Invivo Diagnostics, Inc. 381 12.0 Introduction 381 12.1 Invivo Diagnostics Case 381 12.2 Frame and Diagram the Problem 384 12.3 M1 Model and Analysis 388 12.4 M2 Model and Analysis 394 12.5 M3 Model and Analysis 406 12.6 M4 Model and Analysis 426 12.7 Presentation of Results 434 12.8 Summary 443
Appendix A: Guide to Solver 445
Appendix B: Guide to Crystal Ball 451
Appendix C: Guide to the Sensitivity Toolkit 456
INDEX 464