New Theories And Predictions On The Ozone Hole And Climate Change

by Qing-bin Lu

Overview

This monograph reviews the establishment of new theories of the ozone hole and global climate change, two major scientific problems of global concern. It provides a comprehensive overview of the author's work including significant discoveries and pioneering contributions, such as the discovery of extremely effective dissociative electron transfer reactions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) adsorbed on ice surfaces and its implications for atmospheric ozone depletion; the proposal of the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for the ozone hole; the predictions of 11-year cyclic variations in polar ozone loss and stratospheric cooling; the discovery of the nearly perfect linear correlation between CFCs and global surface temperature; the proposal of the CFC theory for modern global warming; the discovery of greenhouse-gas-specific climate sensitivity and the parameter-free calculation of global surface temperature change caused by CFCs; the prediction of global cooling; and so on.Unlike conventional atmospheric and climate models, the author's theoretical models were established on robust observed data rather than computer simulations with multiple parameters. The new theories have shown the best agreements with the observed data within 10% uncertainties. This book highlights the scientific understandings of the world-concerned problems from the unique point of view of a physicist who seeks theories with great simplicity and superior predictive capacity.This book is self-contained and unified in presentation. It may be used as an advanced book by graduate students and even ambitious undergraduates in physics, chemistry, environmental and climate sciences. It is also suitable for non-expert readers and policy makers who wish to have an overview of the sciences behind atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9789814619448
Publisher:	World Scientific Publishing Company, Incorporated
Publication date:	07/24/2015
Pages:	308
Product dimensions:	6.06(w) x 9.24(h) x 0.84(d)

Table of Contents

Dedication v

Preface vii

Acknowledgments xiii

List of Abbreviations xv

Chapter 1 Basic Physics and Chemistry of the Earth's Atmosphere 1

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 The Earth's atmosphere 1

1.2.1 Atmospheric compositions 3

1.2.2 Atmosphereic layers 3

1.2.3 Atmospheric temperature profile 5

1.3 Radiation in the atmosphere 7

1.3.1 Solar radiation 7

1.3.2 Cosmic ray radiation 9

1.3.3 Terrestrial radiation 15

1.4 Photon interactions with atmospheric molecules 15

1.4.1 Photoexcitation 16

1.4.2 Photodissociation 19

1.4.3 Photoionization 21

1.5 Atmospheric ionization 23

1.5.1 Ionization in the upper atmosphere 23

1.5.2 Ionization in the stratosphere and troposphere 25

1.6 Ion chemistry in the atmosphere below 100 km 26

1.6.1 D-region (50-80 km) 26

1.6.2 Stratosphere and troposphere (below 50 km) 29

1.6.3 Ultrafast reactions with prehydrated electrons 33

1.7 Concluding remarks 34

Chapter 2 Interactions of Electrons with Atmospheric Molecules 35

2.1 Introduction 35

2.2 Electron interactions with molecules 35

2.3 Negative ion resonances in electron-molecule interactions 37

2.3.1 Dissociative electron attachment (DEA) in the gas phase 40

2.3.2 DEAs in liquid and solid phases 43

2.4 Examples of negative ion resonances of atmospheric molecules 44

2.4.1 Nitrogen (N₂) 44

2.4.2 Oxygen (O₂) 45

2.4.3 Nitrogen monoxide (N₂O) 47

2.4.4 Nitrogen oxygen (NO₂) 48

2.4.5 Halogen-containing molecules 49

2.5 Concluding remarks 51

Chapter 3 Conventional Understanding of Ozone Depletion 52

3.1 The ozone layer and its formation 52

3.2 The observation of the ozone hole 54

3.2.1 The early observation 54

3.2.2 The Antarctic ozone hole 57

3.3 Photochemical models of ozone depletion 59

3.3.1 Catalytic destruction of ozone by HOx 59

3.3.2 Catalytic destruction of ozone by odd nitrogen 61

3.3.3 Catalytic destruction of ozone by halogen 62

3.3.4 Heterogeneous chemical reactions in the polar stratosphere 66

3.3.5 Summary of mechanisms for polar ozone loss 68

3.4 Montreal Protocol 69

3.5 Photochemical models versus observations 70

3.6 Concluding remarks 81

Chapter 4 The Cosmic-Ray-Driven Theory of the Ozone Hole: Laboratory Observations 83

4.1 Introduction 83

4.2 Dissociative electron attachment to halogenated gases 83

4.3 Discovery of extremely effective dissociative electron transfer (DET) of halogenated molecules on ice 88

4.3.1 DET vs DEA 88

4.3.2 Electron-stimulated desorption (ESD) experiments of CFCs adsorbed on ice surfaces 90

4.3.3 Proposal of a dissociative electron transfer (DET) mechanism 97

4.3.4 Observations of DET reactions from electron trapping measurements 105

4.3.5 Observations of DET from femtosecond time-resolved laser spectroscopic measurements 112

4.3.6 DEA/DET reactions of CIONO₂ 117

4.3.7 Temperature dependent DEA/DET cross section 120

4.4 Possible charging mechanism of polar stratospheric clouds via N₂-(₂Π) resonance 124

4.5 Charge-induced adsorption of molecules on polar stratospheric clouds 128

4.5.1 A universal electrostatic coupling mechanism for electron-induced adsorption 128

4.5.2 Charge-induced adsorption of halogenated molecules on H₂O ice surfaces 130

4.6 The cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) mechanism of the ozone hole 133

4.7 An analytic (quantitative) expression of polar ozone loss 138

4.8 Summary 139

Chapter 5 The Cosmic-Ray-Driven Theory of the Ozone Hole: Atmospheric Observations 141

5.1 Introduction 141

5.2 Spatial correlation between cosmic rays and ozone depletion 141

5.3 Temporal correlaiion between cosmic rays and ozone depletion 143

5.3.1 11-year cyclic variation of polar ozone loss 143

5.3.2 11-year cyclic variation of polar stratospheric cooling 146

5.4 Direct effect of solar cycles or cosmic ray cycles 149

5.5 Seasonal variations of CFCs, N₂O and CH₄ 152

5.6 Ozone loss in the dark polar stratosphere in winter 158

5.7 Evaluation of the Montreal Protocol 160

5.8 Comparison of the CRE model with the photochemical model 164

5.9 Future trends of the ozone hole 167

5.10 Any effect of non-halogen greenhouse gases on polar ozone loss and climate change? 169

5.11 Responses to the criticisms by some atmospheric chemists 170

5.12 Summary 171

Chapter 6 Conventional Understanding of Climate Change 175

6.1 Introduction to climate change 175

6.2 Solar radiation 177

6.2.1 Solar radiation spectrum 177

6.2.2 Solar variation 178

6.3 Earth's blackbody radiation (Terrestrial radiation) 180

6.4 Absorption of radiation by the atmosphere 184

6.5 The radiative equilibrium of the Earth 185

6.6 Radiative forcing 189

6.6.1 The concept of radiative forcing 189

6.6.2 Definition of radiative forcing 190

6.6.3 Radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases 191

6.7 Climate sensitivity factor 196

6.8 Global surface temperature changes given by climate models 199

6.9 Concluding remarks 202

Chapter 7 Natural Drivers of Climate Change 203

7.1 Introduction 203

7.2 Variations in the Sun's radiative output 204

7.2.1 Variations in total solar irradiance 205

7.2.2 Variations in solar spectral irradiance 209

7.2.3 Variations of other indices of solar activity 211

7.3 Effects of cosmic rays on clouds 213

7.4 Other natural contributors to climate change 214

7.5 Influence of solar variability on climate 214

7.6 Derivation of solar climate sensitivity factor and total feedback factor from solar irradiance variability 218

7.7 Conclusions 221

Chapter 8 New Theory of Global Climate Change 222

8.1 Introduction 222

8.2 Revisiting the earth's blackbody radiation spectrum 225

8.3 Evidence of the null warming effect of rising non-halogen greenhouse gases 228

8.3.1 No effects of increasing non-halogen gases on polar ozone loss and stratospheric cooling 228

8.3.2 Global surface temperature vs CO₂ or CFCs 229

8.3.3 Observations versus IPCC-used radiative forcings of non-halogen greenhouse gases 232

8.3.4 Observations of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) spectra 234

8.3.5 Observations of paleoclimate 237

8.4 Early calculations of surface temperature changes caused by halogenated greenhouse gases 238

8.5 Refined physics model of global climate change 241

8.5.1 The optically opaque limit 243

8.5.2 The optically transparent limit 243

8.6 Re-calculations of surface temperature changes caused by halogenated gases 244

8.7 The potential nullifying effect of water 250

8.8 Summary 250

Chapter 9 Impacts on Science, Policy and Economics 253

9.1 Summary of main results and conclusions and Implications for the Montreal Protocol and the Kyoto Protocol 253

9.2 Jeopardizing politicized science 259

9.3 What should we do first? 259

Bibliography 261

Index 283