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Overview
Product Details
| ISBN-13: | 9789814759373 |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | World Scientific / Now Publishers |
| Publication date: | 03/08/2017 |
| Series: | World Scientific-now Publishers Series In Business , #13 |
| Pages: | 284 |
| Product dimensions: | 6.10(w) x 9.10(h) x 0.80(d) |
Table of Contents
About the Authors v
Introduction xiii
Test Your Judgment: Why Do You Need Project Risk Analysis xv
Answers to Judgment Quiz xix
Part I Project Risk Management and Qualitative Project Risk Analysis 1
Chapter 1 What is Project Risk Management and Risk Analysis? 3
Entebbe Raid 1976 3
Shabwa Raid 2014 5
A Qualitative Project Risk Analysis Perspective 6
A Quantitative Project Risk Analysis Perspective 8
Project Risk Management Perspective 11
Risks and Their Attributes 13
Chapter 2 Risk Identification, Monitoring, and Control 21
Tzar Bomba 21
Risk Identification Techniques 22
Group Integration Techniques for Risk Identification 23
Diagramming Tools for Risk Identification 26
Judgment Elicitation Techniques 26
Risk Reviews, History, and Audit 29
Chapter 3 Risk Registers and Risk Prioritization 33
Why We Should Prioritize Risks 33
Risk Scores 35
Risk Impact Types 36
Hierarchical Risk Registers 38
Risk Matrixes 40
Risk Matrix Phenomenon 42
Setting-up a Risk Matrix 42
How to Define Risks in the Risk Register 44
Ranking Risks Which Belong to Difference Categories 45
Chapter 4 Risk Mitigation and Response Planning 49
Why Perform Response and Mitigation Planning? 49
The Psychology of Risk Mitigation 51
Risk Management Strategies 52
Risk Mitigation vs. Risk Response Planning 54
Registry of Risk Mitigation Plans 54
Risk Mitigation in Stages: Waterfall Charts 55
Cost of Risk and Its Mitigation 58
Using the Risk Matrix for Risk Mitigation Planning 61
Part II Quantitative Project Risk Analysis 65
Chapter 5 Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis 67
Why Quantitative Risk Analysis? 67
A Little Bit of History 68
Statistical Distributions 70
Discrete and Continuous Statistical Distributions 73
Statistical Parameters 74
Percentiles 75
Probabilistic Parameters of Project Schedules 75
How Monte Carlo Works 77
Schedule Quality Requirements for Monte Carlo 80
Distributions for Project Risk Analysis 83
Three Point Estimates and Uncertainty Bands 83
Seed and Linear Congruence 85
How Many Iterations are Required 87
Convergence Monitoring 89
Chapter 6 Project Risk Analysis with Events: An Introduction to Event Chain Methodology 91
Project Risk Analysis with Events 91
Why You Should Use Events as Part of Risk Analysis 94
Project Risk Analysis with Events: A Psychological Perspective 96
Basic Steps of Project Risk Analysis with Events 99
Basic Principles of Event Chain Methodology 100
State of Activity, Moment of Event, and Excitation States 101
Local and Global Risks 104
Risk Alternatives 105
How are Risk Chains Calculated? 107
Probabilistic Risk Impact 107
Chapter 7 Event Chain Diagrams 109
Why Event Chain Diagrams? 109
Diagrams in Business Processes 110
Visual Tools for Probabilistic Business Problems 113
Event Chain Diagram Specification 114
How to Use Event Chain Diagrams 118
State Tables 120
Chapter 8 Event Chain Methodology: Managing Event Chains 121
Why Event Chains? 121
Event Chain Methodology Principle 2: Event Chain 122
Types of Event Chains 125
How are Event Chains Calculated? 127
Event Executing Other Activities and Event Driven Branching 128
Repeated Activities 129
Execution of Response Plans 130
Delays in Event Chains 131
Entanglement 131
Resource Leveling Using Event Chains 132
Parallel Risks 133
How to Define Event Chains 134
Chapter 9 Interpreting Results of Quantitative Analysis 137
Interpretation Results of the Analysis 137
Managing Project Contingencies 139
Sensitivity Analysis, Tornado, and Scatter Plots 140
Critical Indexes 143
Risk Prioritization in Quantitative Analysis 144
Calculated Risk Probability 148
Calculated Impact and Probabilities of Event Chain 149
Chapter 10 Project Performance Measurement with Risks and Uncertainties 151
Tracking Project Performance under Uncertainties 151
Remaining Project Duration and Cost 152
Forecasting Project Duration and Cost with Risk Events 154
Monitoring the Chance that a Project Meets a Deadline 156
Risk Analysis and Earned Value Management 157
Part III Advanced Quantitative Project Risk Analysis 161
Chapter 11 More Uncertainties: Calendars, Success Rates, Work and Resources 163
Deadlines and Success Rate 163
More Details about Task and Project Deadlines 165
Calculation and Presentation of Success Rates 165
Probabilistic Calendars 168
Probabilistic Work and Resource Allocation 169
Probabilistic Resource Leveling 171
Drawbacks of Risk-Based Resource Leveling 172
Chapter 12 Scenario Analysis, Branching, and Decision Trees 173
Multiple Objectives and Multiple Scenarios 173
Project Objectives and Indicators 175
Project Scenario Analysis 176
Decision Tree Analysis 177
Probabilistic and Conditional Branching 179
Chapter 13 Probabilistic Cost and Cash Flow Analysis 181
Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis 181
Cost Uncertainties 183
Results of Cost Analysis: Cumulative Cost Chart 184
Income and Probabilistic Cash Flow Analysis 186
Joint Cost and Schedule Confidence Level (JCL) Analysis 188
Cost and Schedule of Partially Completed Project 190
Chapter 14 Non-Schedule Related Risks and Integrated Risk Analysis 193
What are Non-Schedule Related Risks? 193
Why We Often Ignore Non-Schedule Risk Categories 195
Non-Schedule Risk Impact Types for Project Task and Resources 195
Quantitative Risk Analysis with Non-Schedule Risks 196
Integrated Risk Analysis 198
Part IV Portfolio Risk Analysis 199
Chapter 15 Introduction to Portfolio Risk Analysis 201
Why Perform Portfolio Risk Analysis? 201
Project Portfolio Hierarchy 204
Prioritization of Projects 205
Project Risk Score 207
Enterprise Risk Register 209
Risk Visibility and Risk Approval Rules 211
Risk Bubble Chart 212
Chapter 16 Monte Carlo Simulations of Project Portfolios 215
Challenges of Portfolio Risk Analysis 215
Monte Carlo Simulation of Project Portfolio 218
How to Simplify Project Schedules for Risk Analysis 219
Why Do We Need to Improve the Performance of Monte Carlo Simulations? 222
Parallel Monte Carlo Iterations 223
Conclusions 225
Appendixes 229
Appendix A Basic Principles of Event Chain Methodology 229
Appendix B What Can We Get From Monte Carlo Simulation 231
Appendix C Project Risk Analysis Software 235
References 237
Further Reading 243
Glossary 245
Index 257