Table of Contents
Preface xi
Chapter 1 Introduction to Seasonality in the Stock Market 1
The Concept of Seasons and Seasonality 2
What Is Seasonality? 5
The Pioneers of Stock Market Seasonality 7
Measuring Market Performance throughout This Book 9
How to Trade the Dow 11
Seasonal Trends to Consider 14
Summing Up 18
Chapter 2 The Month of January 21
The First Five Days of January 22
The Last Five Days of January 25
The January Barometer 27
The January Barometer as a Stand-Alone System 29
The JayNewary Barometer 31
The Ultimate January Barometer System 38
The Effect of Compounding 42
A Few Words of Warning 46
Summing Up 47
Chapter 3 Holiday Seasonal Trends 49
The Holidays 50
The Trading Day before Each Holiday 51
Two Days before Each Holiday 52
Three Days before and after Each Holiday 54
The Best Holiday Trading Days 56
The Ultimate Holiday System 61
The Most Wonderful Week of the Year (Usually) 63
Summing Up 65
Chapter 4 Monthly Seasonal Trends 67
The Best Day of the Month 68
The Trading Days of the Month 71
The Worst Trading Days of the Month 80
The Best Trading Days of the Month (Part 1) 81
The Best Trading Days of the Month (Part 2): The Month-End/New-Month Pattern 83
The Most Wonderful Time of the Year 89
Monthly 10 Combined with the Santa Claus Rally 91
The Ultimate Monthly Days System 93
One Last Tweak 96
Summing Up 100
Chapter 5 Yearly Seasonal Trends 103
Decennial Patterns (Part 1: Ranking the Years) 104
Decennial Patterns (Part 2: The Best and Worst Years) 106
Decennial Patterns (Part 3: The Decennial Road Map) 110
Decennial Tendencies 111
Decade-by-Decade Performance 112
Intradecade Trends of Note 123
Intradecade Cycles Combined 130
Summing Up 136
Chapter 6 Repetitive Time Cycles of Note 139
The 212-Week Cycle 140
The 40-Week Cycle 146
The 53-Day Cycle 153
Combining Cycles 163
The Ultimate Time Cycles Model 168
Summing Up 172
Chapter 7 Election Cycle Investing 173
The Election Cycle: By the Years 175
The Election Cycle: By the Months 187
Two Other Patterns in the Election Cycle 205
The Ultimate Election Cycle System 210
Summing Up 214
Chapter 8 Sell in May and Go Away 219
November to May 220
What Is MACD? 225
Using MACD as a Filter 227
October through June for the Nasdaq 238
The Dead Zones 246
The Easiest Market-Beating Strategy in the World 260
October of Year 7 261
Summing Up 264
Chapter 9 Putting It All Together 267
Building Seasonal Trading Models 268
Building the KTI 271
Comparing Extreme KTI Readings 273
Model 1: The Long-Only Method 276
Model 2: The Long-Only Plus Leverage (LOPL) Method 278
Model 3: Jay’s Ultimate Seasonal Barometer 281
Summing Up 284
Index 291
