Publishers Weekly
05/27/2024
Shifts in labor markets, capital flows, and inflation can’t always be foreseen, but they can be navigated, according to this thought-provoking debut guide. Carlsson-Szlezak and Swartz, both economists at the Boston Consulting Group, warn against putting too much faith in long-term economic models, suggesting that they provide a false sense of certainty. Instead, the authors favor an unsystematic approach called “economic eclecticism,” which encourages consulting empirical data, historical examples, and pithy rules of thumb (tight labor markets are the spark for productivity growth, for instance) to craft “narratives” about where markets are headed. Applying that framework to today’s economy, the authors anticipate that the next 10 years will bring tight labor markets, heavy investment in green technology, and the onshoring of supply chains, which they argue will lead to higher inflation that will be mitigated by productivity gains stemming from AI. Carlsson-Szlezak and Swartz demonstrate a welcome recognition of the shortcomings of traditional economic models, though the implication that their services and those of other consultants will always be necessary for reading economic tea leaves feels self-serving. Still, this is a stimulating primer on how business leaders can keep abreast of changing economic tides. (July)
From the Publisher
"…this is a stimulating primer on how business leaders can keep abreast of changing economic tides." — Publisher's Weekly
Advance Praise for Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms:
"A provocative, pragmatic, and didactic take on a topic that is top of mind for corporate leaders around the world. A rich tapestry of insight . . . for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the intricacies of macroeconomics." — Andre Maciel, Global CFO, Kraft Heinz
"Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms brings great clarity to the macroeconomic realities leaders need to understand . . . This book helped ground my thinking and understanding of global uncertainties." — Miki Tsusaka, President, Microsoft Japan
"The authors refreshingly argue that it is misplaced to believe in silver-bullet models. With this book, everyone can learn to navigate what may come." — Ali Dibadj, CEO, Janus Henderson
"A valuable framework to improve decision-making in an uncertain world. The authors replace the false precision of point forecasts with an analytical focus on the economic drivers that shape risk." — Tom Luddy, former Chief Investment Officer, J.P. Morgan Investment Management
"A tour de force! The authors combine the skills of economist, Wall Street analyst, and historian to bring a unique perspective to the issues that drive economic risk. And an enjoyable read to boot!" — Colin McGranahan, Global Director of Research, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
"Timeless, compelling, and thought-provoking, the book also provides a framework for strengthening your own judgment." — Frank Brosens, member of the Board of Directors, Peterson Institute of International Economics; cofounder, Taconic Capital
"A vital guide to thinking about macroeconomic risks." — Brad Setser, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
"A compass for navigating macroeconomic risk. . . . A must-read for those seeking a nuanced understanding of macroeconomics." — Hon. Bill Morneau, former Minister of Finance, Canada
"A great book . . . The focus on underlying drivers to form judgments I found to be very impactful." — Thomas Sweet, former CFO, Dell Technologies
