Strategic Business Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Shaping the Future of Your Business

by Simon Ramo, Ronald Sugar

Overview

“A helpful read not just for corporate strategists but for almost anyone looking ahead.”
Los Angeles Times

What's Your Next Big Move?

At the turn of the century, Western Union passed on the chance to dominate the telephone industry. Later, General Electric concluded that a new invention called television was doomed to fail. And very recently, decision makers at the highest level were taken off-guard when the global economy dropped from under their feet—and took their companies with it.

Today, only those business leaders with the power of long-term foresight will seize and hold true competitive advantage. But can managers really predict the future? Yes, to a greater extent than one might expect. Strategic Business Forecasting shows how to identify and quantify possible events that may affect your business. Applying creativity, personal experience, and the lessons of history, you can use such forecasting to develop plans that will help your organization compete.

Drs. Simon Ramo and Ronald Sugar, two giants of the aerospace industry, share their Four-Measures Rating system to help you explore the world of possibilities—thoroughly and systematically. Under their tutelage, you will be equipped to:

• Create a comprehensive list of possible scenarios concerning your business
• Utilize a scoring system to rate each scenario's merit as a serious and useful prediction
• Develop an effective plan that strategically shapes the future of your organization

The authors provide vivid illustrations of the Four-Measures system at work with real-world examples of both forecasting failures and successes.

No one can predict perfectly, and the authors don't promise magic. With the approach described in Strategic Business Forecasting, however, you can ensure your organization is better poised to seize future opportunities, avoid pitfalls, and handle anything the increasingly volatile global economy throws your way.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780071621267
Publisher:	McGraw Hill LLC
Publication date:	02/19/2009
Pages:	240
Product dimensions:	6.34(w) x 9.20(h) x 0.85(d)

About the Author

Dr. Simon Ramo, a recipient of the PresidentialMedal of Freedom, is a pioneer incofounding successful high-tech companies.
Dr. Ronald Sugar is chairman and CEOof Northrop Grumman, a $33 billion hightechnologycorporation defining the future ofglobal security.

Table of Contents

Introduction: The Prediction Imperative 1

Part 1 Principles of Forecasting

Chapter 1 Poor Past Predictions 11

Chapter 2 Near-Term Forecasting 31

Chapter 3 Possibilities, Then Predictions: The Four-Measures Procedure 45

Chapter 4 Extrapolating from Past to Future 67

Chapter 5 Possibility Generators 81

Chapter 6 Predicting Big Externalities 105

Part 2 Future Possibilities

Chapter 7 The Future Automobile 115

Chapter 8 Terrorism in the United States 121

Chapter 9 China and the Asian Military Arena 131

Chapter 10 K-12 Education in the United States 145

Chapter 11 A Nuclear Scenario 157

Chapter 12 Robotic Birds and No-Casualty Warfare 165

Chapter 13 The Price of Oil 173

Chapter 14 The SuperGrid Electric Power System 181

Chapter 15 The Medical Practice Internet Channel 189

Chapter 16 The Next War 195

Postlude 201

Notes 203

Index 219