The Decline and Fall of Republican Afghanistan

The Decline and Fall of Republican Afghanistan

by Ahmad Shuja Jamal, William Maley
The Decline and Fall of Republican Afghanistan

The Decline and Fall of Republican Afghanistan

by Ahmad Shuja Jamal, William Maley

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Overview

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 was the result of declining active support for the government, and of waste and inefficiency in aid delivery. Yet, while corrosive, these problems were not in themselves sufficient to have brought about a collapse. To a significant degree, they were the result of early failings in institutional design, reflecting an American inclination to pursue short-term policy approaches that created perverse incentives-thus interfering with the long-term objective of stability.

This book exposes the true factors underpinning Kabul's fall. The Afghan Republic came under relentless attack from Taliban insurgents who depended critically on Pakistani support. It also suffered a creeping invasion that put the government on the back foot as the US tried and failed to deal with Pakistan's perfidy. The fatal blow came when bored US leaders naively cut an exit deal with the enemy, fatally compromising the operation of the Afghan army and air force and triggering the final collapse, with top leaders at odds over whether to make a final stand in Kabul.

The Afghan Republic did not simply decline and fall. It was betrayed.

Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780197694725
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Publication date: 05/01/2023
Pages: 304
Product dimensions: 8.82(w) x 5.87(h) x 1.18(d)

About the Author

Ahmad Shuja Jamal was director-general for international relations on Kabul's National Security Council (2019-21). He was previously a Fulbright scholar (Georgetown University), and worked for Human Rights Watch.

William Maley is Emeritus Professor of Diplomacy at Australian National University, and the author of many books on Afghan politics and history.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements

Map

Preface

Chapter One: Introduction

The post-1978 context
The rise of the Republic: December 2001
The fall of the Republic: August 2021
The structure of this book

Chapter Two: The problem of political legitimacy

Institutional design and political legitimacy
Security and legitimacy
Corruption and legitimacy
Impunity, abuse of power, and legitimacy
Presidential elections and legitimacy
The weaknesses of the Wolesi Jirga
Conclusion: the decline of political legitimacy

Chapter Three: Pathologies of aid and development

The forms and significance of aid
Security sector assistance
Provincial Reconstruction Teams
Funding the Afghan state
Off-budget? funding
Management issues
Conclusion: the complex effects of aid

Chapter Four: Problems of insurgency

The character and objectives of the Taliban
Pakistan as a source of instability
Sanctuaries and their significance
Taliban revenue and resources
The Afghan National Defence and Security Forces
The US and its military activities
Civilian casualties and drone strikes
Conclusion: the US failure to address the problem of Pakistan

Chapter Five: Political leadership

The meaning of leadership
The skills and requirements of leadership in Afghanistan
Forms of leadership in Afghanistan
Karzai as a leader
Ghani as a leader
Conclusion: leadership failings and their implications

Chapter Six: Diplomatic disaster

Shifts in US diplomatic strategy
After Bidens withdrawal announcement
Contrasts with the Trump administration
Wider implications of the US-Taliban agreement
Conclusion: Americas shifting goalposts in Afghanistan

Chapter Seven: Cascade effects and the unravelling of military power

What are cascades?
Historical cascades in Afghanistan
Ways of averting cascades
Ways of precipitating cascades
Conclusion: the fatal cascade of 2021

Chapter Eight: The last days of Kabul

How the unravelling commenced
Planning ahead
Military diplomacy
Final weeks
Final days
Conclusion: dynamics of final collapse

Chapter Nine: Conclusion

Revisiting the 2021 collapse
Some final thoughts

Afterword: On Betrayal

Index
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