The Distortion Theory of Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Guide for Economists and Investors

by Steven Marquard

Overview

This book contends that central bank policy pits the Federal Reserve against consumers, creating business cycles and inflation. As the cycle proceeds, the velocity of money starts to rise, complicating the central bank's problems. Ultimately, either a depression or a runaway inflation develops. The gold standard would not alter patterns of supply and demand and would prevent business cycles and inflation.

Central bank policies inevitably alter patterns of supply and demand from what they would be, based on consumer sovereignty. This changes the mix of human and physical capital available to produce a mixture of consumer goods. The economy struggles to right itself against these imbalances. Ultimately, the monetary velocity and price inflation start to rise, worsening the government's problems. In time, either a traditional depression or a runaway inflation results. The gold standard would prevent the twin evils of recession and price inflation. Investment professionals, corporate economists and others in strategic and financial planning capacities will find Mr. Marquard's book both challenging and provocative.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780899309101
Publisher:	Bloomsbury Academic
Publication date:	07/21/1994
Pages:	224
Product dimensions:	6.14(w) x 9.21(h) x 0.56(d)
Lexile:	1310L (what's this?)

About the Author

STEVEN MARQUARD is President of Smilodom Financial Consulting, Berkeley, California, and holds an MBA in Applied Economics from the University of California, Berkeley./e A certified public accountant, he has also been Chief Economist for Southern Pacific and the Assistant Treasurer for Bio-Rad Laboratories.

Table of Contents

Introduction
Macro-Economic Principles
Money Systems and Depression
The Capital Structure
Money, Prices, and Velocity
Interest and Credit
Banking Functions
Business Cycle Theories
The Fractional Reserve Standard
The Rise of Paper
The Basic Error
Direct Distortion
The Money Illusion
Bank Credit Expansion
Gresham's Law and Velocity Induction
Empirical Velocity
Interest Intensive Production Processes
Real and Nominal Interest Rates
The Business Cycle Black Box
The Stock Market
The Budget Deficit
Anatomy of a Business Cycle
Anatomy of a Depression
Anatomy of an Inflation Phase
Price Controls, Income Policies, and Indexing
A Long or a Short Depression?
The Full Gold Standard
The Full Gold Standard
Summary
Bibliography
Index