The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality

by Richard Heinberg

Overview

The global economy has reached a turning point. As energy and food prices escalate and debt levels explode, paths that led to economic expansion now go nowhere. The "recession" will not end in a "recovery," yet in the coming years we can still thrive—if we maximize happiness rather than the pursuit of growth at any cost.

Economics has failed us ... but there is life after growth!

Economists insist that recovery is at hand, yet unemployment remains high, real estate values continue to sink, and governments stagger under record deficits. The End of Growth proposes a startling diagnosis: humanity has reached a fundamental turning point in its economic history. The expansionary trajectory of industrial civilization is colliding with non-negotiable natural limits.

Richard Heinberg's latest landmark work goes to the heart of the ongoing financial crisis, explaining how and why it occurred, and what we must do to avert the worst potential outcomes. Written in an engaging, highly readable style, it shows why growth is being blocked by three factors:

• Resource depletion
• Environmental impacts
• Crushing levels of debt

These converging limits will force us to re-evaluate cherished economic theories and to reinvent money and commerce.

The End of Growth describes what policy makers, communities, and families can do to build a new economy that operates within Earth's budget of energy and resources. We can thrive during the transition if we set goals that promote human and environmental well-being, rather than continuing to pursue the now-unattainable prize of ever-expanding GDP.

Richard Heinberg is the author of nine previous books, including The Party's Over , Peak Everything , and Blackout . A senior fellow of the Post Carbon Institute, Heinberg is one of the world's foremost peak oil educators and an effective communicator of the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780865716957
Publisher:	New Society Publishers
Publication date:	08/09/2011
Edition description:	Original
Pages:	336
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 8.90(h) x 0.90(d)

About the Author

Richard Heinberg: is the author of nine previous books including The Party’s Over, Peak Everything, and Blackout. He is a Senior Fellow of Post Carbon Institute, a think tank helping chart humanity’s transition from the brief, waning reign of fossil-fueled megatechnology to the dawning era of re-adaptation to nature’s limits. Widely regarded as one of the world’s foremost Peak Oil educators, Richard lectures widely and appears on radio, television, and in films. With a wry, unflinching approach, he explains the trends that shape our world.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments xi

Introduction: The New Normal 1

Why Is Growth Ending? 2

The End of Growth Should Come As No Surprise 4

Why Is Growth So Important? 6

But Isn't Growth Normal? 10

The Simple Math of Compounded Growth 12

The Peak Oil Scenario 15

From Scary Theory to Scarier Reality 18

Bursting Bubbles 19

What Comes After Growth? 20

A Guide to the Book 22

1 The Great Balloon Race 27

Economic History in Ten Minutes 28

Economics for the Hurried 34

20th-century Economics 38

Business Cycles, Interest Rates, and Central Banks 41

Mad Money 46

I Owe You 51

2 The Sound of Air Escaping 55

Houses of Cards 56

Setting the Stage: 1970 to 2001 57

Shadow Banks and the Housing Bubble 61

What Goes Up 63

The Mother of All Manias 70

Limits to Debt 72

All Loaned Up and Nowhere to Go 81

Stimulus Duds, Bailout Blanks 83

Actions by Other Nations and Their Central Banks 91

After All the Arrows have Flown 92

Deflation or Inflation? 96

The Bridge to Nowhere 99

3 Earth's Limits: Why Growth Won't Return 105

Oil 106

Other Energy Sources 113

How Markets May Respond to Resource Scarcity: The Goldilocks Syndrome 118

Water 124

Food 129

Metals and Other Minerals 138

Climate Change, Pollution, Accidents, Environmental Decline, and Natural Disasters 145

4 Won't Innovation, Substitution, and Efficiency Keep Us Growing? 155

Substitutes Forever 156

Energy Efficiency to the Rescue 164

Business Development: The Cavalry's on the Way 174

Moore's or Murphy's Law? 177

Specialization and Globalization: Genies at Our Command 181

5 Shrinking Pie: Competition and Relative Growth in a Finite World 189

The China Bubble 190

CurrencyWars 202

Post-Growth Geopolitics 208

Population Stress: Old vs. Young on a Full Planet 212

The End of "Development"? 217

The Post-Growth Struggle Between Rich and Poor 224

6 Managing Contraction, Redefining Progress 231

The Default Scenario 233

Haircutsfor All... or Free Money? 236

Post-Growth Money 241

Post-Growth Economics 246

Gross National Happiness 255

Our Problems Are Resolvable In Principle 259

7 Life After Growth 267

Setting Priorities 268

Transition Towns 270

Common Security Clubs 273

Putting the New Economy on the Map 275

What Might a Sustainable Society Look Like? 280

Perspective 284

Notes 287

Index 311

About the Author 321

What People are Saying About This

From the Publisher

"Heinberg draws in the big three drivers of inevitable crisis—resource constraints, environmental impacts, and financial system overload—and explains why they are not individual challenges but one integrated systemic problem. By time you finish this book, you will have come to two conclusions. First, we are not facing a recession—this is the end of economic growth. Second, this is not our children's problem—it is ours. It's time to get ready, and reading this book is the place to start."
— Paul Gilding, author, The Great Disruption ,Former head of Greenpeace International

"Richard has rung the bell on the limits to growth. This is real. The consequences for economics, finance, and our way of life in the decades ahead will be greater than the consequences of the industrial revolution were for our recent ancestors. Our coming shift from quantity of consumption to quality of life is the great challenge of our generation—frightening at times, but ultimately freeing."
— John Fullerton, President and Founder, Capital Institute

"Why have mainstream economists ignored environmental limits for so long? If Heinberg is right, they will have a lot of explaining to do. The end of conventional economic growth would be a shattering turn of events—but the book makes a persuasive case that this is indeed what we are seeing."
— Lester Brown, Founder, Earth Policy Institute and author, World on the Edge

"Heinberg shows how peak oil, peak water, peak food, etc. lead not only to the end of growth, and also to the beginning of a new era of progress without growth."
— Herman E. Daly, Professor Emeritus, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland

" The End of Growth offers a comprehensive, timely and persuasive analysis of the reality of ecological limits as they relate to economic growth. Filled with facts and figures and very readable, the book makes a rational case while paying attention to nuance and counterarguments. A must-read for anyone who depends upon economic growth, which means all of us."
— Leslie E. Christian, CFA, President and CEO Portfolio 21 Investments

"Heinberg has masterfully summarized and updated the case against economics, and its fraudulent scorecard—GDP. He explains why conventional economic growth is ending now, and why growth of human populations and material consumption will follow suit. Yet we all can still grow in wisdom and continue expanding the knowledge of our universe, while growing greener technologies capturing the sun's daily free photon flow as we transition to the Solar Age."
— Hazel Henderson, author, The Politics of the Solar Age (1981) and other books, President of Ethical Markets Media (USA and Brazil) and its Green Transition Scoreboard®

"Dig into this book! It is crammed full of ideas, information and perspective on where our troubled world is headed—a Baedeker for the perplexed, and that's most of us."
— James Gustave Speth, author of The Bridge at the Edge of the World: Capitalism, the Environment and Crossing from Crisis to Sustainability

"Read this book and have the light switched on."
— Caroline Lucas, Member of Parliament (UK)

"Richard Heinberg is not one to shy away from difficult topics and The End of Growth is no exception. Heinberg explains today's environmental and economic realities—which are scary to face. But believe me, not facing them is a whole lot scarier. And as Heinberg explains, the sooner we have this critically needed conversation about how to live in a healthy, fair, and meaningful way on this one planet we have, the better it will be for all of us."
—Annie Leonard, author, The Story of Stuff

"A vitally important book—it helps clear away many of the mistaken assumptions that clutter our heads when we think about 'obvious' and 'natural' facts of our economic life. You really need to read it if you want to understand the next few crucial years."
— Bill McKibben, author of Deep Economy and Eaarth

"From all my research, I'm come to appreciate how much the expectation of unending growth dominates public policy — and how ephemeral that goal is likely to prove. Until now, however, no one has had the foresight to address this critical topic. Congratulations to Richard Heinberg for providing such a lucid account of the natural limits to growth and the urgent need for a new economic model."
— Michael Klare, author, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet

Editorial Reviews

Heinberg (senior fellow-in-residence, Post Carbon Inst.; Blackout: Coal, Climate, and the Last Energy Crisis) contends that new economic growth, the ostensible solution to the current global recession, is impossible to achieve. He argues that high levels of public and private debt make new borrowing (necessary to fund growth) difficult and that any deleveraging of the current debt would also inhibit growth. Discounting possible ameliorating effects of efficiency and innovation, Heinberg warns that the increasing scarcity and cost of energy, water, food, and minerals as well as the environment's fragile condition will be a further constraint on future growth. While he admits that isolated growth has continued to occur, he believes that even fast-growing economies like China's will ultimately slow. He cautions that an end to growth portends heightened geopolitical and demographic competition but offers hope that the world can build a new economy based on sustainability and self-restraint. VERDICT Clearly written and argued with excellent graphs and taking account of recent events, Heinberg's contrarian view on growth is highly recommended to all readers interested in economics, sustainability, and future trends.—Lawrence Maxted, Gannon Univ. Lib., Erie, PA

Library Journal

"Clearly written and argued . . . Heinberg's contrarian view on growth is highly recommended to all [listeners] interested in economics, sustainability, and future trends." ---Library Journal

From the Publisher