The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction

by David Orell PhD

Overview

Hurricane Katrina, the internet stock bubble, disease outbreaks -- are these predictable, preventable events, or are we merely the playthings of chaos? A compelling, irreverent, elegantly written history of our future that addresses the most important issues of our time, Apollo's Arrow examines such questions as: How well can we predict the future? Can past discoveries help us understand tomorrow's weather patterns, or tell us what our financial future will look like? Will scientists ever be able to forecast catastrophes, or will we always be at the mercy of Mother Nature, waiting for the next storm, epidemic, or economic crash to thunder through our lives? David Orrell looks back to show us how past scientists (and some charlatans) predicted the future, and where we are on the path to truly understanding what comes next. He asks how today's scientists can claim to predict future climate events when even three-day forecasts prove a serious challenge. Can we predict and control epidemics? Can we accurately foresee our financial future? Or will we only find out about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives?

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780786732319
Publisher:	Basic Books
Publication date:	02/26/2008
Sold by:	Hachette Digital, Inc.
Format:	eBook
Pages:	464
File size:	5 MB

About the Author

David Orrell, Ph.D., received his doctorate in mathematics from the University of Oxford. His work in the prediction of complex systems has been featured in New Scientist and the Financial Times, and on BBC Radio, ABC Radio, and NPR. He lives in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Table of Contents

Introduction: The Science and Sociology of Forecasting     1
Past
Slings and Arrows: The Beginnings of Prediction     19
Let There Be Light: Tycho Brahe and the Model Makers     51
Divide and Conquer: The Gospel of Deterministic Science     84
Present
Red Sky at Night: Predicting the Weather     123
It's in the Genes: Predicting Our Health     174
Bulls and Bears: Predicting Our Economy     218
Future
The Big Picture: How Weather, Health, and Wealth Are Related     269
Back to the Drawing Board: Figuring Out Where We Went Wrong     313
Consulting the Crystal Ball: Our World in 2100     337
Appendices     351
Notes     362
Glossary     399
Bibliography     410
Acknowledgements     433
Index     435