The Great American Crime Decline / Edition 1

by Franklin E. Zimring

Overview

Many theories—from the routine to the bizarre—have been offered up to explain the crime decline of the 1990s. Was it record levels of imprisonment? An abatement of the crack cocaine epidemic? More police using better tactics? Or even the effects of legalized abortion? And what can we expect from crime rates in the future? Franklin E. Zimring here takes on the experts, and counters with the first in-depth portrait of the decline and its true significance. The major lesson from the 1990s is that relatively superficial changes in the character of urban life can be associated with up to 75% drops in the crime rate. Crime can drop even if there is no major change in the population, the economy or the schools.

Offering the most reliable data available, Zimring documents the decline as the longest and largest since World War II. It ranges across both violent and non-violent offenses, all regions, and every demographic. All Americans, whether they live in cities or suburbs, whether rich or poor, are safer today. Casting a critical and unerring eye on current explanations, this book demonstrates that both long-standing theories of crime prevention and recently generated theories fall far short of explaining the 1990s drop. A careful study of Canadian crime trends reveals that imprisonment and economic factors may not have played the role in the U.S. crime drop that many have suggested.

There was no magic bullet but instead a combination of factors working in concert rather than a single cause that produced the decline. Further—and happily for future progress, it is clear that declines in the crime rate do not require fundamental social or structural changes. Smaller shifts in policy can make large differences.

The significant reductions in crime rates, especially in New York, where crime dropped twice the national average, suggests that there is room for other cities to repeat this astounding success. In this definitive look at the great American crime decline, Franklin E. Zimring finds no pat answers but evidence that even lower crime rates might be in store.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780195181159
Publisher:	Oxford University Press
Publication date:	11/30/2006
Series:	Studies in Crime and Public Policy
Edition description:	New Edition
Pages:	272
Product dimensions:	9.46(w) x 6.40(h) x 0.92(d)

About the Author

Franklin E. Zimring is the William G. Simon Professor of Law and Wolfen Distinguished Scholar at the University of California, Berkeley. His recent books include The Contradictions of American Capital Punishment (2003), voted a Book of the Year by the Economist and American Juvenile Justice (2005).

Table of Contents

Part I What Happened in the 1990s?1. The Size and Character of the Crime Decline2. The Environment for Optimism: Crime Trends and Attitudes about the Effectiveness of Crime PoliciesPart II The Search for Causes3. The Usual Suspects: Imprisonment, Demography, and the Economy4. Progeny of the 1990s: Three New Explanations of DeclinePart III Two New Perspectives5. Which Twin Has the Toni? Some Statistical Lessons from Canada6. New York City's Natural ExperimentPart IV Twenty-First Century Lessons7. What Happens Next? 8. Seven Lessons from the 1990sAppendix 1: Crime and Abortion Policy in Europe, Canada, and AustraliaAppendix 2: Supplementary Statistics on Crime Trends in Canada during the 1990sAppendix 3: Trends for the City of New York and the United States during the 1990sAppendix 4: Measuring the Extent of Decline in Selected High-Decline CitiesReferencesIndex

Editorial Reviews

"When you examine a complicated matter such as the crime reduction in the U.S., seeking the causes for such reductions, be prepared for statistics. But it is worth it, particularly when one finds that New York City's drop in crime in all seven index crime rates are 'roughly double the national average.' Reading this book will greatly enhance your understanding of this crucial issue and put you on the path to becoming an expert."—Edward I. Koch, 105th Mayor of New York City

"Zimring writes with a style and language that makes this book accessible to readers both inside and outside of academia. His comprehensive review and explanation of crime statistics will be understandable to more casual readers while his critical review of the various reasons offered to explain the crime decline is done in the careful, thorough, well-researched, and thought-provoking way that is expected in Zimring's work...this book is a rich compilation of numbers, analysis, and insight that is organized to give the reader a deeper understanding of American crime rates and the complex interplay of factors that might explain its decline in the 1990s."—Journal of Sociology and Social Welfare

"'Success has many fathers,' and the Great Crime Decline of the 1990s is no exception. Who or what should actually get the credit? Frank Zimring provides an engaging guide to the data and the principal claimants for paternity. There are no simple answers here, but the reader will be rewarded with fresh and important lessons about crime, crime control, and the criminological enterprise, delivered with his usual wit and verve."—Philip J. Cook, Duke University

"I learned a tremendous amount from Frank Zimring's highly readable and penetrating examination of the US drop in crime in the 1990s. Zimring is unsurpassed in his mastery of the relevant crime literature and the wildly varying pronouncements that have emerged from it over the last 40 years."—Punishment and Society

"The crime drop of the 1990s was an important phenomenon that has led many scholars to search for the factors that contributed to it. Frank Zimring, one of the most prolific and important scholars of crime and criminal justice, addresses others' perspectives, some critically and some with valuable elaboration, and adds a number of his own. The result is a very readable volume that answers some questions and raises many more for future research."—Alfred Blumstein, Carnegie Mellon University

"The Great American Crime Decline poses a vigorous and thoughtful challenge to existing theories and research on American crime trends. Zimring's engaging prose and provocative arguments should interest scholars, policymakers, and anyone interested in the causes and consequences of the nation's longest crime drop on record. A masterful contribution."—Richard Rosenfeld, University of Missouri-St. Louis

"To his credit, Zimring disavows simplistic, one-dimensional answers....Recommended."—CHOICE

"[Zimring] produced a masterpiece of scientific work, making sense of the data when possible and showing his readers when it is not possible to conclude anything. This is exactly what a scientific approach should yield...Zimring covers his topics comprehensively...His book demonstrates how research should be done to bring about understanding about changes in the crime rate."—-Net: Business Network

"Zimring's book stands out as a much-needed roadmap for this rough terrain. It clarifies the main lines of contention, summarizes what areas of consensus exist, and tries to present a coherent view of the field, which is filled with mixed results and conflicting arguments. The Great American Crime Decline is an accessible and engaging book that invites readers to delve deeper into the subject." —Vanessa Barker, Assistant Professor of Criminology at Florida State University

From the Publisher