The Importance of Small Decisions

by Michael J. O'Brien, R. Alexander Bentley, William A. Brock, John Maeda (Foreword by)

Overview

How people make decisions in an era of too much information and fake news.

Humans originally evolved in a world of few choices. Prehistoric, preindustrial, and predigital eras required fewer decisions than today's all-access, always-on world of too much information. Economists have largely discarded the idea that agents act rationally and the market follows suit. It seems that no matter how small or innocuous a decision might seem, there's almost no way to guess the effect it might have. The authors of The Importance of Small Decisions view decisions and their outcomes from a different perspective: as key elements in the evolution of culture. In this trailblazing book, they examine different kinds of decisions and map the outcomes, both short- and long-term. Drawing on this, they introduce a map of social behavior that captures the essential elements of human decision-making.

The authors look at the New England Patriots' decision in 2000 to draft an underachieving college quarterback named Tom Brady; they consider Warren Buffett's investment strategy; and they chart the “dancing landscape” of a college applicant's decision-making environment. Finally, they show that decisions can be ranked according to transparency of choice and social influence. When fake news seems indistinguishable from real news and when the internet offers a cacophony of voices, they warn, we can't afford to crowdsource our decisions.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780262039741
Publisher:	MIT Press
Publication date:	03/12/2019
Series:	Simplicity: Design, Technology, Business, Life
Pages:	160
Product dimensions:	5.60(w) x 8.10(h) x 0.80(d)
Age Range:	18 Years

About the Author

Michael J. O'Brien is Provost and Professor of History at Texas A&M University–San Antonio and the coauthor of I'll Have What She's Having: Mapping Social Behavior and The Acceleration of Cultural Change: From Ancestors to Algorithms (both published by the MIT Press).

R. Alexander Bentley is Professor and Chair of the Department of Anthropology at the University of Tennessee and coauthor of I'll Have What She's Having: Mapping Social Behavior and The Acceleration of Cultural Change: From Ancestors to Algorithms (both published by the MIT Press).

William A. Brock is Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, Research Professor at the University of Missouri, and a member of the National Academy of Science.

An internationally recognized leader at the intersection of design and technology, John Maeda is Executive Vice President/Chief Experience Officer at Publicis Sapient. He was the 16th President of the Rhode Island School of Design (RISD). He is the author of Design by Numbers, The Laws of Simplicity, and Redesigning Leadership, all published by The MIT Press.

Table of Contents

Foreword John Maeda ix

Preface: In Judge Ito's Courtroom xiii

1 Cultural Evolution: Small Changes In The Aggregate 1

Classifying Cultures 4

Intent and Outcomes 6

A Different Look at Domestication 7

Social Influence 8

A Formative-Period Call to Action 11

2 Getting Our Terms Straight 13

Evolutionary Terms 14

Economic Terms 22

3 Teams And Fitness 25

More than Throwing Deep 28

Drafting Tom Brady 29

Neuroplasticity and London Taxi Drivers 33

Ifs and Buts 35

Why Only Individuals? 37

4 How Do We Learn? 41

Individual Learning 42

Social Learning 46

Imitation versus Emulation 47

The Legendary Skill of Woody the Flintknapper 50

Galton's Problem 54

5 Dancing Landscapes And The Red Queen 57

Rugged Landscapes 61

The Landscape Starts to Move 63

6 A Map In Four Parts 69

The Map 72

Northwest: Individual Decision-Making with Transparent Payoffs 74

Northeast: Socially Based Decision-Making with Transparent Payoffs 76

Southeast: Social Decision-Making without Transparent Payoffs 77

Southwest: Individual Decision-Making without Transparent Payoffs 79

Moving around the Map 80

7 Risky Business 85

Taking Stock(s) of Retirement 86

I Need Some Muscle over Here! 91

8 Life In The Southeast 99

Pay for Play 101

We're All Scientists Now 105

Decision Fatigue 110

What about the Future? 112

Bibliography 117

Index 133

Editorial Reviews

An excellent study of human psychology, evolution, modes of thinking. Read this book.—Greg Laden, Greg Laden's Blog—

An enticing digest, with shades of (and references to) Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow and James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds.

—Financial Times—

A neat little primer on an evolutionary approach to decision theory.

—Diane Coyle, Enlightenment Economics—

“Why worry about the underlying causes of global warming when we can see what tens of millions of our closest friends think?” ask the authors, building to a fine, satirical climax.... There is much fun to be had reading the garrulous banter of these three extremely smart academics.

—New Scientist—

From the Publisher