Table of Contents
Chapter 1 Risk 1 A Nation of Stock Market Junkies 4
Calm Words for Wild Times 7
Chapter 2 Greed 13
The Hardest Decision 23
The Iron Man 24
Atlas Doesn’t Shrug 27
The Warrior Philosopher 28
Like Monkeys at the Zoo 30
A Context 32
The Danger of Warren Buffett 34
The Value of Errors 35
Chapter 3 Fear 37
The Theory of Contrary Opinion 42
Exile on Wall Street 44
The Media Is the Message 47
Media Misreads Google 49
Paulson’s Gamble 50
Buffett’s Goldman Trade 53
Fading the News 53
Chapter 4 The Anatomy of Information 55
The Doors of Perception 58
Anatomy of Information 60
The Future Is Now 63
Show Business 66
Words Are Weapons 68
Trust, but Verify 70
Chapter 5 Chaos 81
Money Never Sleeps 82
Perversities 82
The Black Swan’s Calling Card 85
Map of the Market 86
Don’t Get Skewed 89
Apathy and Fear Are Your Friend 90
Fear Not Black Swans 91
Is MPT MIA or KIA? 92
800 Years of Crisis 97
Fear Gray Swans 98
Chapter 6 Diogenes’ Lantern 103
Performance Is Relative 106
Death by a Thousand Fees 107
Stockbroker Pay 111
Hidden Fees 116
Beware of New Products 116
An Uncomfortable Conversation 117
A Funny Aside 118
Suitability Requirement 119
Fiduciary Standard 120
Shakespeare’s Rule 121
Appeals to Common Sense 121
Trust but Verify 122
Active versus Passive Fund Management 125
Chapter 7 Cycles 127
The Year in Stocks 128
Mysterious Repetitions 136
Flash Mobs 137
History’s Hiccups 138
The Economy in Slow Motion 139
The Guts of ISM 141
Numerical Nuances 142
Says Who? Says Goldman Sachs 142
Action 148
Chapter 8 Behavior 151
One Brain: Two Minds 152
Maps and Models 154
This Is Your Brain Visualizing Money 156
Compulsive Gambler 158
B. F. Skinner Goes to Wall Street 158
The Casino Culture 160
Your Own Private Stock Market 162
Often Wrong; Never in Doubt 163
Illusion of Memory 164
Safe Havens in the Age of Madoff 165
Illusions 167
Victor 169
An Antidote for Overconfidence 170
Go Slow to Go Fast 172
Think Week 173
Halos and Angels 173
Big Brother Is Studying You 175
Big Bank Is Watching You 177
Ancient Lessons 178
Chapter 9 Watchman, What of the Night? 181
The Next Crash 183
Misperceptions and Illusions 184
Revolving Doors 185
Investor Laureate 186
A Fox in the Henhouse 187
The Tremendous Task 188
Sane Money, Not Mad Money 189
Repetition and Velocity 191
More Education 192
Plain Speaking 192
The Cause of Failure 193
Virtue 194
Ladders 195
A Systematic Change 196
Flash Crash 198
Soft Spots 199
Washington 201
A Global Problem 202
Present at the Creation 204
The Illusion of Regulation 205
Power 208
The Balance of Power 208
Acknowledgments 211
Notes 215
About the Author 225
Index 227
I must create a system, or be enslaved by another man's. —William Blake