The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President

by Allan Lichtman

Overview

With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860—including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection—Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781461644576
Publisher:	Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
Publication date:	02/15/2008
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	216
Sales rank:	554,591
File size:	2 MB

About the Author

Allan J. Lichtman is professor of American history at American University.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1. Logic of the Keys: How Presidential Elections Really Work
Chapter 2. Turning the Keys to the Presidency
Chapter 3. Civil War and Reconstruction
Chapter 4. The Gilded Age
Chapter 5. Rise and Fall of Progressivism
Chapter 6. Depression, War, and Cold War
Chapter 7. New Directions, War, and Scandal
Chapter 8. The Reagan Revolution
Chapter 9. A False Dawn for Democrats
Chapter 10. The Winds of Political Change: Forecast for 2008
Chapter 11. Lessons of the Keys: Toward a New Presidential Politics

What People are Saying About This

David Broder

For generations, politicians, pundits, and poll-takers have been seeking their version of the Holy Grail--a surefire, guaranteed way to predict presidential elections well ahead of time. It may have been found in this book.

William Schneider

Do me a favor. Don't read this book. Because if you do, it could put all of us pundits and political consultants out of business. Allan Lichtman has some nerve, revealing our trade secrets to the great unwashed public. Including the biggest secret of all, which is that the presidential vote is simple, rational, and highly predictable.

Editorial Reviews

Of the hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's "The Keys to the White House".

Roll Call

If you're into American presidential politics, "The Keys to the White House" is a must, and fun, read.

Toronto Sun

This is a must book for political junkies who want to answer one important question about any campaign: Who's going to win?
— Jack Germond

Baltimore Sun

Overall, the 2008 edition that applies the keys to the 2008 presidential election is a useful update that will interest readers broadly.

Political Science Quarterly

Allan Lichtman's Keys to the White House serves as an important reminder to all of us, professional political analysts and interested citizens and observers alike, that fundamentals matter. Presidential elections are not personality contests or astrological events. Rational forces drive presidential election outcomes and nobody does a better job of making that case than Lichtman does. If you want to have the best chance of figuring out which side will win in November 2008, there is no better book to read.

Charlie Cook

For generations, politicians, pundits, and poll-takers have been seeking their version of the Holy Grail—a surefire, guaranteed way to predict presidential elections well ahead of time. It may have been found in this book.

David Broder

Do me a favor. Don't read this book. Because if you do, it could put all of us pundits and political consultants out of business. Allan Lichtman has some nerve, revealing our trade secrets to the great unwashed public. Including the biggest secret of all, which is that the presidential vote is simple, rational, and highly predictable.

William Schneider

Allan Lichtman's Keys to the White House serves as an important reminder to all of us, professional political analysts and interested citizens and observers alike, that fundamentals matter. Presidential elections are not personality contests or astrological events. Rational forces drive presidential election outcomes and nobody does a better job of making that case than Lichtman does. If you want to have the best chance of figuring out which side will win in November 2008, there is no better book to read.--Charlie Cook, Editor and Publisher, The Cook Political Report; Fellow, Institute of Politics, Spring 2013

Do me a favor. Don't read this book. Because if you do, it could put all of us pundits and political consultants out of business. Allan Lichtman has some nerve, revealing our trade secrets to the great unwashed public. Including the biggest secret of all, which is that the presidential vote is simple, rational, and highly predictable.--William Schneider, Political Analyst, CNN

For generations, politicians, pundits, and poll-takers have been seeking their version of the Holy Grail--a surefire, guaranteed way to predict presidential elections well ahead of time. It may have been found in this book.--David Broder

From the Publisher