The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation

by Carl Benedikt Frey

Overview

"Made me look at the industrial revolution, invention, sleeping beauties, contexts and the forces that shape our societies differently."—David Byrne, New York Times Book Review

How the history of technological revolutions can help us better understand economic and political polarization in the age of automation

The Technology Trap is a sweeping account of the history of technological progress and how it has radically shifted the distribution of economic and political power among society’s members. As Carl Benedikt Frey shows, the Industrial Revolution created unprecedented wealth and prosperity over the long run, but the immediate consequences of mechanization were devastating. Middle-income jobs withered, wages stagnated, the labor share of income fell, profits surged, and economic inequality skyrocketed. These trends broadly mirror those in our current age of automation. But, just as the Industrial Revolution eventually brought about extraordinary benefits for society, artificial intelligence systems have the potential to do the same. The Technology Trap demonstrates that in the midst of another technological revolution, the lessons of the past can help us to more effectively face the present.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780691210797
Publisher:	Princeton University Press
Publication date:	09/22/2020
Pages:	488
Sales rank:	621,582
Product dimensions:	5.20(w) x 7.90(h) x 1.40(d)

About the Author

Carl Benedikt Frey is the Oxford Martin Citi Fellow and codirector of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford. Twitter @carlbfrey

Table of Contents

Preface ix

Introduction 1

Part I The Great Stagnation 29

1 A Brief History of Preindustrial Progress 33

2 Preindustrial Prosperity 60

3 Why Mechanization Failed 72

Part II Theorem Divergence 93

4 The Factory Arrives 97

5 The Industrial Revolution and Its Discontents 112

Part III The Great Leveling 141

6 From Mass Production to Mass Flourishing 147

7 The Return of the Machinery Question 174

8 The Triumph of the Middle Class 189

Part IV The Great Reversal 223

9 The Descent of the Middle Class 227

10 Forging Ahead, Drifting Apart 249

11 The Politics of Polarization 264

12 Artificial Intelligence 301

13 The Road to Riches 342

Acknowledgments 367

Appendix 369

Notes 373

Bibliography 425

Index 453

What People are Saying About This

From the Publisher

"Will machines equipped with artificial intelligence render the human race redundant? Is work as we know it about to end? The Technology Trap draws on the experiences of the first and second Industrial Revolutions, and the first Computer Revolution, to answer some of the burning questions of our time. Frey’s key point—that technological disruption of the labor market is usually painful in the short run, whatever innovation’s long-run benefits—is of vital importance to voters and policymakers alike." —Niall Ferguson, author of The Square and the Tower

"The Technology Trap is a subtle, wide-reaching exploration of the relationship between technology and labor over centuries of history. Frey shows how the impacts of automation upon the British and American workforce have been shaped by changing power structures. In its attention to the detailed determinants of change, his book is a hugely welcome antidote to today’s surfeit of sweeping predictions about the future of work."—Robert Skidelsky, University of Warwick

"In this book, Carl Frey brings a new perspective, that of historical experience, to tackle some of the most important issues of our time. Offering the clearest account that I have read in quite a while regarding current problems around employment, technology, economic performance, and globalization, Frey provides the technological background to Thomas Piketty’s analysis of inequality, Capital in the Twenty-First Century."—Jane Humphries, University of Oxford

"Carl Frey’s highly original, admirably engaging, and deeply researched book should be read by anyone interested in how technological change will disrupt not only our jobs, but also our politics and society. By comparing the current age of disruptive technological change with the Industrial Revolution, The Technology Trap provides unique and timely insights which we ignore at our peril."—Ian Goldin, coauthor of Age of Discovery

“How will artificial intelligence affect the future of work? In The Technology Trap, Frey answers this question through a comprehensive, insightful analysis of the relationship between technological advances and work, from preindustrial society through the Computer Revolution. He predicts that intelligent machines will reduce the demand for human labor while yielding significant productivity gains. Societies will differ in how they choose to distribute these gains."—Laura Tyson, University of California, Berkeley

Editorial Reviews

"[Frey] investigates the short, medium, and long-term consequences of the Industrial Revolution on workers, finding that in fact the changes had extraordinarily negative consequences in the short term. His lessons from this pivotal moment in history can help technology leaders avoid the biggest risks today in how we design human/AI systems in the coming age of automation."

TechCrunch

"A powerful historical synthesis on the question of the relationship between man and machine."

Wall Street Journal

"The Technology Trap may well ensnare doom-seekers’ attention with its ominous-sounding title. But it should ultimately hearten anyone who reads it."

The Economist

"Narrator Richard Lyddon performs an almost impossible feat—making a very theoretical audiobook sound absorbable in a truly entertaining way . . . . Cheers to both Frey and Lyddon, a pairing that listeners may wish to hear again."

AudioFile Magazine

Co-Winner of the Silver Medal in Business Technology, Axiom Business Book Awards

One of the Financial Times' Summer Books of 2019: Business

One of the Financial Times' Best Books of 2019: Technology

12 must-read books for 2019 as recommended by Tech Crunch's Extra Crunch readers

One of Five Books' Best Economics Books of 2019

University of Chicago 2019 Recommended Reading

One of Handelsblatt's Best Technology Books of 2019

"One of Época Negócios's Best Books of 2019"

A Choice Outstanding Academic Title of the Year

A Project Syndicate Best Read in 2019

A Financial Times Best Book of the Year

Winner of the Richard A. Lester Prize for the Outstanding Book in Industrial Relations and Labor Economics, Industrial Relations Section of Princeton University

From the Publisher