Troubled Partnership: U.S.-Turkish Relations in an Era of Global Geopological Change

Troubled Partnership: U.S.-Turkish Relations in an Era of Global Geopological Change

by Stephen F. Larrabee
Troubled Partnership: U.S.-Turkish Relations in an Era of Global Geopological Change

Troubled Partnership: U.S.-Turkish Relations in an Era of Global Geopological Change

by Stephen F. Larrabee

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Overview

A strong security partnership with Turkey has been an important element of U.S. policy for the last five decades. However, in the last few years, U.S.-Turkish relations have seriously deteriorated, and today they are badly in need of repair. The arrival of a new administration in Washington presents an important opportunity to put Washington's relations with Ankara on a firmer footing. Turkey plays a critical role in four areas of increasing strategic importance to the United States: the Balkans, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the Middle East, and the Persian Gulf. In each of these areas, Ankara's cooperation is vital to achieving U.S. policy objectives.


Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780833047564
Publisher: RAND Corporation
Publication date: 02/16/2010
Pages: 162
Product dimensions: 6.00(w) x 8.90(h) x 0.50(d)

Table of Contents

Preface iii

Figures ix

Summary xi

Acknowledgments xxi

Abbreviations xxiii

Chapter 1 Introduction 1

Chapter 2 The U.S.-Turkish Security Partnership in Transition 3

U.S. and Turkish Interests 3

Changing Turkish Perceptions of the Security Partnership 5

The End of the Cold War 6

The Impact of the Gulf War 7

Chapter 3 Iraq and the Kurdish Challenge 11

The March 1, 2003, Parliamentary Vote 12

The Resurgence of the PKK 14

Growing Anti-American Sentiment 16

The Ralston Mission 18

The Shift in U.S. Policy 19

Turkish-KRG Relations 21

The Impact of the July 2009 Kurdish Elections 24

The Problem of Kirkuk 25

The Internal Kurdish Dimension 26

Iraq's Uncertain Political Evolution 30

Chapter 4 The Broader Middle East 33

U.S.-Turkish Differences over Iran and Syria 34

Iran's Nuclear Ambitions 36

The Impact of the June 2009 Iranian Presidential Election 37

Relations with Syria 39

Lebanon and the Broader Regional Stage 40

Growing Ties to the Gulf Cooperation Council 41

The Israeli Connection 43

Democracy Promotion in the Middle East 45

Chapter 5 Russia and Eurasia 47

The Russian Factor 48

Turkish-Armenian Rapprochement 51

The Armenian Genocide Resolution 55

The Broader Regional Dimension 56

The Energy Dimension 57

Chapter 6 The European Dimension 63

The Changing Turkish Domestic Context 64

European Attitudes Toward Turkish Membership 65

Waning Turkish Support for EU Membership 68

Relations with Greece 71

Cyprus 73

The Uncertain Outlook 74

Chapter 7 U.S.-Turkish Defense Cooperation 77

Military-to-Military Cooperation 80

Use of Turkish Bases and Facilities 82

Maritime Cooperation in the Black Sea 84

The NATO Connection 85

Chapter 8 The Domestic Context 89

Religion and Identity 89

Kemalism Versus Neo-Ottomanism 91

The Nature of the Kemalist Revolution 93

Modernization, Social Change, and the Rise of Islam 95

The Ideological Transformation of the Islamic Movement 96

Growing Internal Polarization 98

The March 2009 Municipal Elections 101

Tensions with the Military 103

The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis 107

Chapter 9 Alternative Turkish Futures 111

A Pro-Western Turkey Integrated into the European Union 111

An "Islamisized" Turkey 113

A Nationalist Turkey 114

Military Intervention 115

Chapter 10 Conclusion: Revitalizing the U.S.-Turkish Relationship 119

Northern Iraq and the PKK 119

The Middle East 121

Eurasia and the Caucasus 122

Turkish Membership in the European Union 123

Turkish-Greek Relations and Cyprus 124

Defense Cooperation 124

Democratization and Domestic Reform 125

Bibliography 127

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