Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction

by Haraldur Olafsson, Jian-Wen Bao

Overview

Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction is a comprehensive work on the most current understandings of uncertainties and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere. It provides general knowledge on all aspects of uncertainties in the weather prediction models in a single, easy to use reference. The book illustrates particular uncertainties in observations and data assimilation, as well as the errors associated with numerical integration methods. Stochastic methods in parameterization of subgrid processes are also assessed, as are uncertainties associated with surface-atmosphere exchange, orographic flows and processes in the atmospheric boundary layer.

Through a better understanding of the uncertainties to watch for, readers will be able to produce more precise and accurate forecasts. This is an essential work for anyone who wants to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting and interested parties developing tools to enhance the quality of such forecasts.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780128154915
Publisher:	Elsevier Science
Publication date:	11/25/2020
Pages:	364
Product dimensions:	7.50(w) x 9.25(h) x (d)

About the Author

Haraldur Ólafsson is a professor of atmospheric physics at the University of Iceland, leading the Reykjavik School of Meteorology. He is a former professor and the leader of the Bergen School of Meteorology at the University of Bergen in Norway. He has a doctorate from Université Paul Sabatier in France and a Cand. Scient. from the University of Oslo, Norway. Haraldur Olafsson is an expert in mesoscale meteorology and climatology and orographic processes.

Jian-Wen Bao is a research meteorologist at NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. He was responsible for developing and testing the physics component of a research global weather prediction model. He is currently participating in a project as a project co-lead to develop an advanced physics suite in NOAA’s Unified Forecast System.

Table of Contents

1. DYNAMICAL CORES FOR NWP: AN UNCERTAIN LANDSCAPE

2. DYNAMICAL MODEL DISCRETIZETION

3. PROBABILISTIC VIEW OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION AND ENSEMBLE PREDICTION

4. PREDICTABILITY

5. MODELING MOIST DYNAMICS ON SUBGRID SCALES

6. ENSEMBLE DATA ASSIMILATION

7. SUBGRID TURBULENCE MIXING

8. UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SURFACE LAYER PHYSICS PARAMETERIZATIONS

9. INTERACTION OF CLOUDS AND RADIATION

10. UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PARAMETERIZATION OF CLOUD MICROPHYSICS: AN ILLUSTRATION OF THE PROBLEM

11. MEOSCALE OROGRAPHIC FLOWS

12. TRACERS AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

13. DYNAMIC IDENTIFICATION AND TRACING OF ERRORS IN NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE

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From the Publisher

An essential resource for understanding uncertainty and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere