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Overview
In an age of nuclear experimentation, military conflicts, and ISIS, the Middle East is unstable, and the Iranian nuclear deal is shrouded in controversy and mistrust. How will this agreement impact US relations and strengths, not only in the region, but around the world? Will the United States be challenged for world leadership? In Volatile State: Iran in the Nuclear Age, global affairs analyst David Oualaalou explores the new geopolitical landscape and how it will allow a nuclear Iran to flex its military, economic, and ideological muscles with the assistance of Russia and China. Taking under consideration how other governments have reacted to the agreement, Oualaalou provides a fresh perspective on current and future relations among the United States. and its current allies and provides a compelling path forward for future strategies in the Middle East. Volatile State is a “must read” to help understand the implications and future with a nuclear deal with Iran.
“David Oualaalou, a geopolitical analyst, writer, speaker, teacher, military veteran, Middle East specialist and linguist with unique first-hand experiences and knowledge gained from personal field intelligence in Middle East wars—combined with his fresh and unique writing style—has produced a challenging perspective and a thought-provoking book. David’s unembellished bold critiques, with credible analytical interpretation of geopolitical implications and national security challenges, for not only the USA but for the Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and others in the new Middle East region (and world), will be much discussed in this impressive approach to eye-opening questions with credible rival answers. I believe this book is crucial reading for any person interested in the future nuclear Middle East.” —William A. Mitchell, author of Baylor in Northern Iraq During Operation Iraqi Freedom
“Once again Dr. Oualaalou has brought to life a complex current topic. His balanced and in-depth investigation of the topic allows the reader to not only learn the history of the parties involved, but also to follow the historic threads that have led to today’s geopolitical situation. Dr. Oualaalou has the experience and expertise to give a clear picture of the region’s issues today and projection of possible scenarios in the future.” —Mortada Mohamed, President, World Affairs Council of Austin
Product Details
| ISBN-13: | 9780253031198 |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | Indiana University Press |
| Publication date: | 12/22/2021 |
| Sold by: | Barnes & Noble |
| Format: | eBook |
| Pages: | 235 |
| File size: | 3 MB |
| Age Range: | 18 Years |
About the Author
David S. Oualaalou is a global affairs analyst and former international security analyst in Washington, DC. He is author of The Ambiguous Foreign Policy of the United States toward the Muslim World: More than a Handshake.
Read an Excerpt
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
What will the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East look like in the coming years now that Western powers and Iran have reached a historic agreement over the latter's nuclear program? The answer is anyone's guess. Undoubtedly, this agreement ends Iran's regional isolation and further complicates regional politics. However, before discussing the nuclear accord the West reached with Iran, one must consider how this new agreement will impact international relations not only among major powers but also within the Middle East. The future geopolitical landscape of the Middle East will undoubtedly change. That landscape will be one in which Iran strengthens and flexes its military, economic, and ideological muscles with the support and assistance of Russia and China. The result is shifting loyalties and the emergence of new alliances in response to this new geopolitical shift, which will certainly have a major political impact on the ground. That is one of this book's key themes.
The Middle East is undergoing a major political transformation that compels regional and major powers, including China, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States, to go back to the drawing board to determine what strategies they should pursue to secure their respective interests in the region. Further, ongoing upheavals in the Middle East provide Iran with the right political platform to expand its sphere of influence. Consider, for example, the civil war in Syria that shows no signs of abating; anarchy in Yemen that already exacerbates tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia; ongoing sectarian violence in Iraq that fuels tensions between Shiites and Sunnis across the region; political and security instability in Egypt; and a failed state in Libya.
We cannot address all the turmoil without highlighting an important fact: the emergence of the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (hereinafter referred to as ISIS) may pave the way for Iran to demonstrate both its political influence and its ability to defeat ISIS. ISIS has come within close proximity to Iran's borders, and this threat to Iran has begun to redefine its geopolitical priorities in the region — it could even result in Iran and the United States agreeing to join forces against ISIS.
Now, the argument over the nuclear accord between the West and Iran is controversial. Some countries, mainly Israel and Saudi Arabia, have expressed their dissatisfaction with this agreement. Each country, whether in the Middle East or elsewhere, has its own political motives for supporting or undermining this agreement. Above all, the agreement, hoped for by so many, turns out to be contentious because of competing agendas. Even the United States Congress has already made clear its intention to reject the Iranian nuclear agreement. Now comes a political face-off between the legislative and executive branches of the American government. The much-anticipated quarrel regarding this agreement inside the Beltway shows the rest of the world the deep divisions in the US government.
This outcome leads many countries to question whether the United States can still play a global leadership role. I wager that Russia, China, Germany, and France will oppose any change to the agreement, since lifting sanctions against Iran provides an economic opportunity of great benefit. For instance, Germany has already dispatched a large delegation headed by the minister of trade, Rainer Bruderle, to Tehran to further his country's corporate interests in Iran. France's foreign affairs minister, Laurent Fabius, embarked with similar objectives.
This nuclear agreement with Iran also benefits China, which eyes major economic ventures with Iran, mainly in the energy sector, after the lifting of sanctions. These developments suggest that this painstakingly negotiated agreement will have significant economic, military, and ideological effects at all levels. It could prove a game changer when it comes to geopolitics in the Middle East. I believe China, Russia, and some European countries will formulate their upcoming economic and diplomatic policies based on the political landscape of the Middle East. When formulating their policies, those nations will pay particular attention to how the emergence of Iran from isolation affects (a) global trade and (b) international relations. For instance, oil prices have already dropped in the international market.
While addressing Iran's nuclear agreement and the inevitable shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, one sees that, whatever political changes take effect, the United States will still play a role in that system, no matter how limited. However, observers and global-affairs pundits question US ability to manage these force-producing dynamics given the latter's failed policies in the region, ranging from the invasion of Iraq and the war in Afghanistan to Syria's ongoing civil war and the conquests of ISIS. Add to that the failed state in Libya, turmoil in Yemen, and political and security instability in Egypt. Consequently, international security analysts ask whether these realities have forced the United States to cut a deal with Iran over the latter's nuclear program. There is a possibility. Yet, those who have argued against this agreement seem to forget that engaging in a military conflict with Iran will have far-reaching consequences that would certainly involve major powers. Margot Patterson, who has written extensively for various newspapers and magazines in the United States and abroad, is the author of Islam Considered: A Christian Perspective. She asks, "Yet is there any viable alternative to the deal? Are those arguing for a tougher agreement being realistic? Is a military strike or a war against Iran preferable? The answers are no, no and no."
Israel and Saudi Arabia, to some degree, are behind the strong opposition of the US Congress to Iran's nuclear deal for two main reasons: (1) Israel worries that lifting sanctions against Iran paves the way for the latter to increase its military and economic support for groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, and (2) Saudi Arabia fears the expansion of an Iranian sphere of influence that may decrease Saudi Arabia's religious dominance in the Muslim world. However, I do not subscribe to the notion that Iran's postnuclear agreement advances either its ideology or, religiously speaking, its attempt to dominate the Muslim world. Even before the nuclear agreement, the invasion of Iraq, American foreign-policy double standards, the civil war in Syria, the upheaval in Yemen, the military coup in Egypt, and the failed state of Libya demonstrate that religious differences divide the Middle East in religious terms. In my opinion, Saudi Arabia is unwilling to relinquish its religious leadership.
I cannot fathom the logic of critics who argue that Iran wants to dominate the Muslim world. How could it, since the Shia population of about 170 million represents a fraction of the far larger Sunni Muslim population of 1.2 billion? Elsewhere I argue, "While Iran's political influence is undeniably growing, the Shiite camp does not wield influence or power when it comes to hard-core demographics. There are approximately 1.6 billion Muslims in the world representing 23 percent of the world's population. And of the 1.6 billion, only 10 percent is Shia. Even if Iran expands its influence in the Middle East, it will hardly have religious dominance over the Muslim world." The Shia population is mainly limited to four countries: Iran, Pakistan, India, and Iraq. Limited numbers of Shia appear in Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, among others. However, what precipitates concern over sectarian tensions is not the agreement between the United States and Iran over the latter's nuclear program but the invasion of Iraq and the war in Afghanistan. Now, these tensions are more pronounced in countries like Lebanon, Saudi Arabia's eastern provinces (mainly Al-Qatif region), Iraq, and Yemen.
We cannot overlook how the United States has helped pave the way for Iran to play a greater role in the Middle East. Of interest is the indecisive victory of US military actions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Each war eliminated one of Iran's chief regional enemies: Saddam Hussein in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan. This political outcome has cleared the way for Iran to pursue its geopolitical aspirations. Now that Iran has reached this historic agreement with the West over its nuclear program, it is well positioned to exert more influence in the region, backed by economic and military apparatus. For instance, Iran's support for the al-Assad regime in Syria and the Houthi rebels in Yemen suggest Iran's desire to influence the outcome of both conflicts in favor of its long-term strategic interests.
The failure of US foreign policy in the Middle East is attributed to an ambiguous policy and ill-defined strategy. Iran understood early on that a chaotic Middle East not only entangles the United States and drains its resources but also provides Iran with the opportunity to further its aspirations in the region. And that is exactly what happened during the invasion of Iraq, where the United States failed to understand that supporting a Shia government in Baghdad under the poor leadership of the former prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, created a back door for Iran to manage Iraq's internal affairs. I argue that the policies of the current Iraqi prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, which consist of targeting and marginalizing Sunnis, are the same policies pursued by his predecessor, al-Maliki. The outcome is that a flood of Shiite volunteers have joined the fight, whether against ISIS or the Sunni tribes, and now reinforce the ranks of Shiite militias allied with Iran. Equally important, Iraq's purchase of Iranian weapons suggests close ties between both governments. Lolita Baldor argues, "Over the past year, Iran sold Iraq nearly $10 billion worth of weapons and hardware, mostly weapons for urban warfare like assault rifles, heavy machine-guns and rocket launchers, an Iraqi government official said. The daily stream of Iranian cargo planes bringing weapons to Baghdad was confirmed at a news conference by a former Shiite militia leader, Jamal Jaafar." This close relationship between Iran and Iraq results from the ill-conceived US policy of invading Iraq in 2003. Some may disagree, but, however one judges the arms sale from Iran, it is nonetheless true that events including the Iraq-Iran war, civil war in Lebanon, Persian Gulf War, and the invasion of Iraq in 2003 have helped Iran to provide support to interested parties to execute its strategic objective: expansion of its sphere of influence in the Middle East.
History shows that certain conditions indeed preceded, and provided an opportunity for, the reemergence and revival of Iran's Shiite ideology; chief among them is the 1979 Iranian revolution. If the Iraq invasion revived Shiism after its long-dormant era, the 1979 revolution laid the foundation on which the ideology could withstand the test of time. For this reason, I assert, Iran strengthens its ideological ties and maintains its support to Shiite communities in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. The objective has always been, and continues to be, for Tehran to enhance its political influence and expand its religious ideology. A strong military apparatus helps Iran project regional power. For instance, one should perceive the size of Iran's armed forces, which exceed a half-million personnel in active service, as part of its expansionist strategy in the region. Equally important, Iran's missile technologies — including the Shahab, Ghadr, and Sejjil systems, which can reach distances of 2,000, 1,800, and 2,000 kilometers, respectively — exhibit its military's ability to embark on any ventures in support of its aspirations for regional influence and dominance. Yet, this has been in play since the Persian Empire. As Michael Totten states, "Iran has been a regional power since the time of the Persian Empire, and its Islamic leaders have played an entirely pernicious role in the Middle East since they seized power from Mohammad Shah Reza Pahlavi in 1979, stormed the US Embassy in Tehran, and held 66 American diplomats hostage for 444 days."
China's Geostrategic Calculations in the Region
While addressing these developments, one also should emphasize the role that other major powers, like China and Russia, play in the new geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. In this section, I address each country's role in this new political landscape separately. Further, I focus my argument on how Iran's new status helps China and Russia to further advance their corporate interests and also challenge the declining regional leadership of the United States. I keep returning to the question of whether these interests, mainly on the part of China, divert the United States' focus away from the Pacific region given China's military buildup in the disputed islands in the South China Sea. In the subsequent sections, the answer sheds light on China's long-term strategy. For now, suffice it to say, China and Russia's interests in the Middle East will grow stronger, bolder, and more calculating, signaling a far more assertive foreign policy from both countries in the coming years.
Regarding China, observers have noticed in recent years its increased economic, military, and political footprints in the Middle East. This pursuit stems from two main factors: (1) China's need for access to energy sources mainly in Saudi Arabia, Iran — given its proximity to the Caspian Sea — and Turkey; and (2) China's economic involvement in the Middle East facilitates expansion of its political sphere of influence, thus projecting to the region its ability to challenge American leadership in the region. One may fairly state that the West, including the United States, did not expect China to be where it is today economically, politically, and diplomatically. Former US treasurer Henry Paulson states, "Forty years ago most Americans wouldn't have imagined owing China one red cent. Now it is the US's biggest creditor, owing just under $1.3 trillion of our government's debt. It's enough to make the head spin — or for Americans to wonder how the world got turned upside down so fast."
China's economic preeminence presents major challenges to the United States not only in the Middle East but also in other parts of the world. In my opinion, dissatisfaction with failed, hypocritical US policies in the Middle East intensifies this challenge. Thus, for instance, key regional players like Saudi Arabia recognize China as a possible alternative to American hegemony there. This idea has become more attractive given the United States-Iran accord over the latter's nuclear program. Could this explain why China is developing major partnership ties with countries like Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia? China's pivot westward is no more evident than during the meeting between the late Saudi king Abdullah and China's leader, Xi Jinping. The United States now tries to minimize its footprints in the Middle East after its disastrous invasion of Iraq and political paralysis in dealing with the civil war in Syria and Yemen. Meanwhile, China realizes that it makes sense to pursue its foreign policy in the region. China's policy would not challenge US leadership in the region, or whatever is left of it. Instead, China focuses on strengthening its economic ties in the region, mainly in the energy sector. Yun Sun, an author and nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institute, argues, "The underlying 'retreat-pursuit' philosophy of 'March West' still anchors on a zero-sum perception of the U.S.-China relations. As the U.S. pivots away from the region and becomes deeply immersed in Asia Pacific, it needs to seriously consider the implications of and prepare for China's 'March West.'"
This approach suggests that China's long-term strategy focuses on having a relationship with the United States more complementary than acrimonious when it comes to the Middle East. Embarking on this policy, China achieves two objectives: (1) US attention shifts from the Pacific region, and (2) China secures more economic ventures with key regional players, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Will the Middle East become a hot zone where the United States' and China's interests collide? The answer is possibly. That is because the lifting of sanctions on Iran following its nuclear agreement with the West compels China to move quickly toward securing economic contracts mainly in the energy sectors. Moreover, China and Iran may enter into a military treaty of some sort, clearing the way for the former to establish military and naval bases on Iranian soil, similar to the arrangement the United States has with Bahrain. However, that does not strike me as a wise policy for China to embark on at this time. Rather, China should wait until the dust settles in this latest major shift in regional geopolitics to better assess the situation and execute its next calculated move.
(Continues…)
Excerpted from "Volatile State"
by .
Copyright © 2018 David Oualaalou.
Excerpted by permission of Indiana University Press.
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Table of Contents
Acknowledgments
Preface
1. Introduction
2. History of the Persian Empire
3. Emergence of Modern-Day Iran
4. Political Landscape of the Middle East
5. Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East
6. The Future of the Middle East and Its Geopolitical Outcome
7. Author's Reflections
What People are Saying About This
"David Oualaalou, a geopolitical analyst, writer, speaker, teacher, military veteran, Middle East specialist and linguist with unique first-hand experiences and knowledge gained from personal field intelligence in Middle East wars—combined with his fresh and unique writing style—has produced a challenging perspective and a thought-provoking book. David's unembellished bold critiques, with credible analytical interpretation of geopolitical implications and national security challenges, for not only the USA but for the Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and others in the new Middle East region (and world), will be much discussed in this impressive approach to eye-opening questions with credible rival answers. I believe this book is crucial reading for any person interested in the future nuclear Middle East."
Once again Dr. Oualaalou has brought to life a complex current topic. His balanced and in-depth investigation of the topic allows the reader to not only learn the history of the parties involved, but also to follow the historic threads that have led to today's geopolitical situation. Dr. Oualaalou has the experience and expertise to give a clear picture of the region's issues today and projection of possible scenarios in the future.
David Oualaalou, a geopolitical analyst, writer, speaker, teacher, military veteran, Middle East specialist and linguist with unique first-hand experiences and knowledge gained from personal field intelligence in Middle East wars—combined with his fresh and unique writing style—has produced a challenging perspective and a thought-provoking book. David's unembellished bold critiques, with credible analytical interpretation of geopolitical implications and national security challenges, for not only the USA but for the Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and others in the new Middle East region (and world), will be much discussed in this impressive approach to eye-opening questions with credible rival answers. I believe this book is crucial reading for any person interested in the future nuclear Middle East.
David Oualaalou, a geopolitical analyst, writer, speaker, teacher, military veteran, Middle East specialist and linguist with unique first-hand experiences and knowledge gained from personal field intelligence in Middle East wars—combined with his fresh and unique writing style—has produced a challenging perspective and a thought-provoking book. David's unembellished bold critiques, with credible analytical interpretation of geopolitical implications and national security challenges, for not only the USA but for the Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and others in the new Middle East region (and world), will be much discussed in this impressive approach to eye-opening questions with credible rival answers. I believe this book is crucial reading for any person interested in the future nuclear Middle East.