Weak Strongman: The Limits of Power in Putin's Russia

by Timothy Frye

Overview

Looking beyond Putin to understand how today's Russia actually works

Media and public discussion tends to understand Russian politics as a direct reflection of Vladimir Putin's seeming omnipotence or Russia's unique history and culture. Yet Russia is remarkably similar to other autocracies—and recognizing this illuminates the inherent limits to Putin's power. Weak Strongman challenges the conventional wisdom about Putin's Russia, highlighting the difficult trade-offs that confront the Kremlin on issues ranging from election fraud and repression to propaganda and foreign policy.

Drawing on three decades of his own on-the-ground experience and research as well as insights from a new generation of social scientists that have received little attention outside academia, Timothy Frye reveals how much we overlook about today's Russia when we focus solely on Putin or Russian exceptionalism. Frye brings a new understanding to a host of crucial questions: How popular is Putin? Is Russian propaganda effective? Why are relations with the West so fraught? Can Russian cyber warriors really swing foreign elections? In answering these and other questions, Frye offers a highly accessible reassessment of Russian politics that highlights the challenges of governing Russia and the nature of modern autocracy.

Rich in personal anecdotes and cutting-edge social science, Weak Strongman offers the best evidence available about how Russia actually works.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780691246284
Publisher:	Princeton University Press
Publication date:	09/27/2022
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	304
Sales rank:	464,001
File size:	2 MB

About the Author

Timothy Frye is the Marshall D. Shulman Professor of Post-Soviet Foreign Policy at Columbia University and a research director at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. His books include Property Rights and Property Wrongs: How Power, Institutions, and Norms Shape Economic Conflict in Russia and Building States and Markets after Communism: The Perils of Polarized Democracy. He lives in New York City. Twitter @timothymfrye

Table of Contents

Preface to the Paperback Edition vii

Preface xix

1 Information Warrior 1

2 Putinology and Exceptional Russia 15

3 The Autocrat's Dilemmas 37

4 Better to Be Feared and Loved: President Putin's Popularity 50

5 The Surprising Importance of Russia's Manipulated Elections 66

6 Neither as Strong nor as Weak as It Looks: Russia's Economy 85

7 Hitting Them with Carrots: The Role of Repression 107

8 Mysterious Ways: Media Manipulation at Home 132

9 Great Power Posing: Russian Foreign Policy 152

10 Why Russia Hacks: Digital Persuasion and Coercion Abroad 175

11 Conclusion: The Death of Expertise? 196

Acknowledgments 209

Notes 211

Index 251

What People are Saying About This

From the Publisher

"Timothy Frye doesn't buy the theory that Vladimir Putin is an exceptional ruler governing an exceptional country. Putin's Russia, he says, is an autocratic regime that has a lot in common with Erdoğan's Turkey, Chávez's Venezuela, and Orban's Hungary. Mustering recent academic research to shift the focus from Putin-gazing to the broader forces shaping such personalist autocracies around the world, Frye offers a welcome contribution to our deeper understanding of Russia."—Jill Dougherty, adjunct professor at Georgetown University, Global Fellow at the Kennan Institute, former CNN Moscow bureau chief

"Timothy Frye's Weak Strongman will become a classic and one of the definitive studies of Putin's rule in Russia for decades to come. Digging deep into the paradoxes of personalistic autocracy, Frye explains why Putin is both the unquestioned strongman ruler of Russia, but also a weak, constrained, and ineffective autocrat. Everyone interested in contemporary Russia should read this book; failure to assign it to students of Russian politics is dereliction of duty for any professor in the field."—Michael McFaul, Stanford University

"At last, the book on Russia we have all desperately needed. Amid the often overheated debates in media and political circles, Weak Strongman provides an objective, informed, and always engaging account of what is actually known about the country's politics."—Daniel Treisman, author of The Return: Russia's Journey from Gorbachev to Medvedev

"Russia is complicated but not unknowable, and policymakers need to understand and know Russia to protect American interests. Frye's book helps American policymakers, and citizens, know and understand Russia."—Celeste A. Wallander, former Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russia and Eurasia in the Obama White House

"A subtle, illuminating work. With lively narration, Frye fills us in on the latest research coming out of Moscow about how Russians really think and act, and also describes his own colorful experiences in the country. This book will complicate what you think you know about how Putin's Russia works, and that's a very good thing."—Joshua Yaffa, author of Between Two Fires: Truth, Ambition, and Compromise in Putin's Russia

Editorial Reviews

02/22/2021

Frye (Property Rights and Property Wrongs), a professor of foreign policy at Columbia University, offers a nuanced look at Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s political playbook. According to Frye, Putin is not invincible; high-level inner conflicts and dicey trade-offs between policies that reward his cronies and those that benefit the public continually threaten his hold on power. Frye compares Putin to Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hungary’s Viktor Orban, and other “personalist” autocrats who rely on vulnerable personal networks to remain in control, and draws on surveys, interviews, and research by contemporary social scientists to argue that Putin’s popularity has faltered as public enthusiasm for the 2014 annexation of Crimea has waned and falling oil prices have contributed to economic stagnation. Since mass protests in 2011 over voting fraud, Russia has become increasingly repressive—a clear sign, Frye contends, that the tools Putin uses to stay in power, including cyberwarfare, media manipulation, and the funding of illiberal movements in the West, are faltering. Whether or not Putin decides to run for reelection in 2024, Frye surmises, “Russia’s next few years will likely be rocky.” Though readers who closely follow Russian politics will find Frye’s conclusions unsurprising, his research is impressive. This timely, evidence-based account persuades. (Apr.)

Publishers Weekly

"With deft prose, deep and insightful analysis, and considerable supporting evidence, Frye not only counters, but dismantles, the overly simplistic and lazy narratives of Russia under Putin."—-Joshua Huminski, Diplomatic Courier

"Frye’s splendid book is a major contribution to the literature."—-Alexander Brakel, Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs

"In short, a sober assessment about Russia and Putin has never been more needed. Thankfully, Tim Frye has provided that assessment, and successfully so, one that is written in clear prose and intended for a general audience. It will appeal to a wide readership, including scholars and others who do not focus on Russia but want to know more, political scientists who do focus on Russia and will find the broad survey of research helpful, and students who want to get up to speed on what the field of political science can tell us about Russian politics."—-Stephen Crowley, Perspectives on Politics

"Frye’s book is a reminder that there is more to Russian politics than Putin, no matter how much he might dominate our attention."—-Neil Robinson, Irish Independent

"An exceptionally timely and prescient treatise."—-Aleksandar Matovski, Asia Policy

"This is an essential book that unravels the usual thinking about Vladimir Putin and his hold on power"—-Yanina Sorokina, Moscow Times

"

Comparative. . . .This is comparative politics at its best, and a timely reassessment of
Russian politics that is likely to withstand the test of time.

"—-Lavinia Stan, European Legacy

From the Publisher

"With deft prose, deep and insightful analysis, and considerable supporting evidence, Frye not only counters, but dismantles, the overly simplistic and lazy narratives of Russia under Putin."

Diplomatic Courier