World War 4

by Douglas Alan Cohn, Harry E. General Soyster USA (Ret.) (Foreword by)

Overview

Thirty-five years ago, Sir John Hackett published The Third World War, which speculated how WW3 might start and how it would be fought. Since it is now fashionable to call WW3 the Cold War, the time is right to publish a book about WW4, how it might start and most likely be fought. War planners must envision the unexpected and plan for the improbable, and the 20th century’s theories of total war are going to be rendered obsolete by the 21st century’s nuclear-enforced concept of limited war. In the future, with mutual acceptance of national survival in place, Mutually Assured Survival (MAS) wars will be waged between nuclear powers without introducing nuclear weapons. This is the possible future in nine scenarios: ·The Post-NATO War: It will begin between allies, not enemies, in seemingly unconnected events. ·The Great Russian War: Russia will seek to reverse its loss of empire through its version of Manifest Destiny. ·The Great China War: By embracing capitalism in an authoritarian command-control economy, China supplanted communism with a form of expansionist fascism. ·The Chinese Civil War: Chinese fascism will become a victim of rising expectations and diminishing realities. ·The Polar War: Another resource rush is on, and as 500 years ago, a treaty allocating sovereignty was made to be broken. ·The Blue Gold War: Diminishing fresh water will spawn conflicts of desperation. ·The Lunar War: The Moon will come to be coveted as the only permanent low-gravity satellite. ·The Nuclear Terrorist War: As the Taliban, al Qaeda, and ISIS terrorists inch closer in connection and proximity to sympathetic extremists in Pakistan, that nation’s nuclear arsenal is increasingly likely to fall into their hands. ·The Commerce, Currency, and Cyber War: With globalization, government-sanctioned predatory trade practices, cyber-based industrial espionage, currency manipulation, and other financially provocative actions will lead to war. Human folly is the great imponderable. Yet, does folly upset the calm or is the storm the natural state in the sea of humanity? Either way, folly or nature ensures a future filled with conflict.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781493018772
Publisher:	Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
Publication date:	09/01/2016
Pages:	264
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 8.40(h) x 1.10(d)

About the Author

Douglas Cohn is a 1968 graduate of West Point and was a U.S. army airborne ranger who led a recon platoon in Vietnam. His medals include two Silver Stars and the Purple Heart. He was retired as a captain after convalescing from gunshot wounds to the head, neck, chest, abdomen, leg, and hand. In addition to his twice-weekly syndicated newspaper columns, he is the author of the forthcoming The Presidents’ First Year (Lyons Press, 2015). He and his wife, Kathryn, reside in McLean, Virginia.

Table of Contents

Notes on the Text vi

Foreword Lt. Gen. Harry E. Soyster, USA (Ret.) vii

I Introduction

Introduction: War planners must envision the unexpected and plan for the improbable 3

II Scenarios

Scenario 1 World War 4: The Post-NATO War 9

It began between allies, not enemies, in seemingly-unconnected events.

Scenario 2 World War 4: The Great Russian War 41

Much of the expansionist work of both communist and tsarist Russia disappeared with the demise of the Soviet Union. That Russians and their leaders would seek to reverse this situation should not come as a surprise, and in many respects the parallel with early American history is not lost on them.

Scenario 3 World War 4: The Great China War 64

No nation has risen as far as fast as early twenty-first-century China, an accomplishment it achieved by embracing capitalism in an authoritarian command-control economy supplanting, in the process, communism with a form of fascism that far outpaced its predecessor example: Germany in the 1930s.

Scenario 4 World War 4: The Chinese Civil War 82

Chinese fascism will become a victim of rising expectations and diminishing realities.

Scenario 5 World War 4: The Polar War 98

Another resource rush is on, and as five hundred years ago, a treaty was signed to allocate sovereignty. And as then, it will be ignored.

Scenario 6 World War 4: The Blue Gold War to Nowhere 112

"More than 50 countries on five continents might soon be caught up in water disputes unless they move quickly to establish agreements on how to share reservoirs, rivers, and underground water aquifers."-Global Policy Forum

Scenario 7 World War 4: The Lunar War 129

As the small islands of the Pacific were looked upon as unsinkable aircraft carriers during World War II, so the moon will come to be viewed as a permanent low-gravity satellite.

Scenario 8 World War 4: The Nuclear Terrorist War 135

As the Taliban, al Qaeda, and ISIS terrorists inch closer in connection and proximity to sympathetic extremists in Pakistan, that nation's nuclear arsenal is increasingly likely to fall into their hands.

Scenario 9 World War 4: The Commerce, Currency, and Cyber War 150

With globalization, the world's economies are becoming more susceptible to disruption from government-sanctioned predatory trade practices, cyber-based industrial espionage, currency manipulation, and other financially provocative actions.

III Historical Perspective: The Atomic Bomb-Weapon of War, Deterrent of War, or Limiter of War 169

The sensitive and controversial nature of four fateful days in August 1945 has long fanned misconceptions and myths.

IV Conclusion: World War 4 193

Human folly is the great imponderable. Yet, does folly upset the calm or is the storm the natural state in the sea of humanity? Either way, folly or nature ensures a future filled with conflict.

V Appendices

Appendix A The United States Military's Contribution to National Security, June 2015 199

Appendix B U.S. European Command Operation Atlantic Resolve, March 2015 220

Appendix C Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies 227

Acknowledgments 235

Endnotes 237

Selected Bibliography 244

Index 249

Editorial Reviews

Built solidly on today, this concise volume soundly projects nine possible tomorrows. This splendid book is a top-notch read.

Brig. General Donald P. Whalen

Many have said that the United States was blindsided by the events of 9/11 (leading to 14 years of war and counting) because of a failure of imagination. Captain Cohn has used his masterful knowledge and understanding of history, diplomacy and military operations to imagine multiple scenarios of future global conflict possibilities that make for entertaining reading for all, and required reading for everyone at every level of the national security apparatus.

Alan Salisbury

Captain Cohn does a masterful job of using an extraordinary knowledge of world and military history, international relations and politics to project realistic future global threats and  possible scenarios for a non-nuclear WW4. A must read for national security and military strategists.

A. James Madora

Captain Cohn discusses an impressive array of possibilities for serious military conflicts in the near and foreseeable future. This work makes clear that many dangerous threats to our security require attention to strong national security preparedness. I recommend reading for all policy makers and national politicians.

Rear Admiral (Upper Half) J. Cameron Fraser US Navy (Ret.)

In this uncertain and complex world effective national security strategic planning must explore multiple plausible scenarios.  Captain Cohn aptly describes nine from their origin through development to conclusion.  The daunting challenge is to be prepared to shape their outcomes in our national interest.

Lt. Gen. Henry (Hank) J. Hatch

The basis for each of Captain Cohn’s scenarios is present today, and each one could be devastating.  Worse still is the possibility of their occurring in combination.  They are worthy of reflection in this superb, remarkable analysis, however unsettling.

Brig. General Clarke Brintnall